Together, the top three riders of this Tour de France will cycle up the final climb of Sunday’s stage to a spur of Europe’s highest mountain, Mont Blanc. The number three in the general classification, Carlos Rodriguez, is leading. But the young Spaniard must feel that he does not exist. Behind him ride the yellow and white jersey and their eyes are not on him for a moment. Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar just look at each other.
It seemed this weekend as if the Dane and the Slovenian were riveted together. The two top favorites have so far shown themselves to be the best two riders in this Tour de France. The gap with Rodriguez, the modest captain of the pursuers, is minutes. The difference between Vingegaard and Pogacar, after 62 hours, 34 minutes and 17 seconds of cycling, is ten seconds.
For three mountain stages, they never left each other’s side for a moment. On Friday it was Pogacar who won eight seconds on the Grand Colombier, on Saturday Vingegaard took a beat back on the Col de Joux Plane. On Sunday the difference on the climb to Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc is zero: they cross the finish line side by side.
The conclusion after fifteen stages, before the rest day and the start of the third and final week? “I don’t know if a conclusion can be drawn, ten seconds is nothing after two weeks of cycling,” says sports director Merijn Zeeman of Vingegaard’s Jumbo-Visma team. His counterpart Mauro Gianetti of UAE Emirates, the Pogacar team, has to laugh at the question. “Because it’s funny how evenly matched these two guys and their teams are,” he says.
The difference is so small that getting bonus seconds – which the riders can earn at the top of the toughest climbs and at the finish and which they can deduct from their overall time – has become an integral part of both teams’ strategy.
Pogacar the most explosive
UAE knows that Pogacar is the more explosive of the two, and that no one can answer his attacks uphill. The team therefore prefers to cycle for the stage victory every day; then bonus seconds can be earned for their leader. The team is so confident that Pogacar can gather such a lead that they always let him wait with his attack until deep into the final. It is not a problem if the gap with Vingegaard in Paris will soon be seconds, or so the thought is, as long as it is in favor of the Slovenian.
Jumbo-Visma, on the other hand, wants no bonuses to be earned if the two race to the finish or a mountain top. That is why the Dutch team thinks it’s fine if a large group drives away on Sunday. They miss a chance to win a stage, but the seconds bonuses are then forgiven to the escapees. For Jumbo-Visma, only the overall victory counts.
At the same time, the team is playing a long-term game. That strategy explains why Jumbo-Visma let the entire team ride hard all day on Saturday, in one of the toughest stages of this Tour, sacrificing all riders for a second gain. But the alternative is even less attractive: Pogacar can destroy Vingegaard on a single climb, so they try to tire him out continuously and as much as possible to prevent that.
That tactic was successful on Saturday: for the first time this Tour, the Dane was able to come back after an attack by his Slovenian competitor. Immediately Vingegaard also took the most bonus seconds on top of the mountain, two short mental taps for Pogacar in a row.
It seems to work again on Sunday. Again Pogacar tries to accelerate in the last kilometer, looking for glean counts. Now there is a difference in style: the Slovenian is on the pedals, the Dane remains in the saddle. It turns out to be just as effective: But he doesn’t know how to make a hole, Vingegaard’s pace is too high for that.
“It’s good to see that the way we approach it works,” concludes sports director Zeeman with satisfaction. “The sharp edges are easily removed at Pogacar.” In the end, Zeeman and his team hope to get Pogacar so tired that Vingegaard can create a gap in the minutes on a long, tough climb. Then all those bonus seconds don’t matter anymore.
5,399 altimeters
The final week offers opportunities for both riders, starting with Tuesday’s time trial, around the foothills of Mont Blanc. UAE team manager Gianetti does not expect the Tour to be decided there. “With how they are driving at the moment, you can’t expect the differences to be big there.” Zeeman refuses to label his leader as a favourite. “They are both great time trialists, so I’m not going to predict the outcome.”
The queen stage will follow on Wednesday, from Mont Blanc to Courchevel with four tough cols and 5,399 altimeters. That seems to be a stage where Jumbo-Visma’s tactics can come to fruition. At the same time: the Dutch team also expected that from the Pyrenees stage to Cauterets last week, and Pogacar surprisingly managed to regain time there.
It is hoped that the influence of the public will remain limited. The fight for the yellow jersey has already been tarnished by inattentive and negligent behavior by spectators. On Saturday, an attack by Pogacar on the Joux Plane was nipped in the bud because engines blocked the road. They could not continue because of the crowding crowd.
The two motorcyclists, and the photographer and cameraman who were on the back, have been kicked out of the Tour for a day and have been fined. But the damage has already been done, says Gianetti. “It may just have been important bonus seconds that we could not take. It is what it is.”
Jumbo-Visma is the victim on Sunday. A spectator unbalances Sepp Kuss, who causes a major fall. Teammate Nathan van Hooydonck is in the worst shape, and Kuss and Dylan van Baarle are also there. The coming days will show whether that affects their performance.
With another mountain stage next Saturday, as the peloton climbs to Le Markstein in the Vosges, the outcome is uncertain. Until then, Vingegaard and Pogacar will remain inseparable, even when they are not racing, as it turns out after the finish on Sunday. While Wout Poels, who wins the first Tour stage of his career at the age of 35, is overjoyed to appear on the podium, Vingegaard calmly kicks out. Who does he see doing exactly the same thing less than two meters away when he looks back? Pogacar.