Hi Patrick, Boris Johnson’s end as Prime Minister has been announced many times. How does the resignation of two ministers and two state secretaries change the situation?
Until Tuesday, the cabinet was unanimous in its support for Johnson. That is no longer the case. When two ministers leave, that is normally the end of a prime minister. Then it’s over. Especially when it comes to these kinds of posts: the Minister of Finance is very important and the Minister of Health was also a heavyweight.
Moreover, the letters from the two departing ministers were merciless about Johnson. Those ministers did not politely resign, but burned the prime minister to the ground. In addition, not only the ministers, but also the vice-chairman of the party and about three lower members of the government have resigned.’
How was the relationship between the two ministers and Johnson?
‘Not so easy. If there were two ministers in government that Johnson had trouble with, it was these two. Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is often mentioned as the future Prime Minister. That’s why he was a danger to Johnson. There is often tension between the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance anyway, because they are both powerful people.
‘Johnson also had a problem with Sunak in terms of content. Johnson spends a lot of money: the billions are flowing away. He sees spending money as a way to stay popular. But the Minister of Finance always tries to keep an eye on the economic reality and not to increase spending too much. Johnson already said on Tuesday: now that Sunak is gone, I can finally lower the tax.
“The Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, was a longtime rival of Johnson. They were both candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party three years ago. They were reasonably good colleagues, although Javid was at one point dismissed by Johnson as Treasury Secretary. Javid won’t have forgotten that.’
Does Johnson still enjoy support among the British people?
“If you go by the polls lately, not like that. Johnson is no longer the much-loved Prime Minister he once was. Over the past six months, Johnson’s midterm elections have all ended dramatically. Those ballot box defeats were already a writing on the wall.
“Yet there is also a large group that still stands behind Johnson. They see all these affairs as a way to frustrate Brexit.’
What are the British newspapers writing about Johnson’s political survival?
“They all write that Johnson’s end is near. The newspaper that usually supports him the most, the Daily Mail, wonders on his front page whether ‘the greased piglet’ can survive this. Because he is constantly escaping his enemies, it has become Johnson’s nickname. The old term for such a person was “the man of Teflon.”
‘With Johnson, you don’t have to think in terms of classical political laws. Normally he should have left a month ago, when a relatively large number of people turned against him in a confidence vote. Johnson is a new politician, who is extremely combative and doesn’t care about political rules. You almost have to physically drag him out of the official residence.’
How is Johnson doing within his party now?
‘All kinds of ways are being devised within the party to get Johnson away, but that is not so easy. It is likely that new people will join the group board. They want to make it possible for a confidence vote before the summer recess. Actually, that can only be done once a year, but now they want to change the rules.
That plan may well have a chance of succeeding. In the previous vote, nearly 150 lower house members from his group were against Johnson. It will take about thirty more to get him out. There is a good chance that those thirty are already there.’
What would happen if Johnson were to resign?
‘Then you first get a leadership election within the Conservative Party. That could take a few months. Because the Conservatives still have a large majority in parliament, that party leader automatically becomes prime minister. Suppose Johnson leaves in two weeks, then the United Kingdom will probably have a new prime minister in the course of September.
‘It is customary for the new prime minister to call elections so that he gets his own mandate. Theresa May waited a year with that, Johnson six months. So there may well be elections in the spring of 2023.’
What would be the consequences of a change of prime minister for British political policy?
‘I think the consequences for the British position in the war in Ukraine are small. The entire government supports Johnson in this. It is a success from a British point of view.
“With Brexit, things could go better for a new prime minister. In Brussels and in other European cities, a kind of aversion to Johnson has developed. They think he’s a liar. A new prime minister could improve relations.
“For the supporters of Scottish independence, it might be better if Johnson stays on. He is hated in Scotland. As long as Johnson is prime minister, the Scots will have someone to act against.”