Will it still be today? Is it tomorrow? Not even next week? Hey, some ministers are leaving Westminster in their official cars, then it won’t be today…? Speculation about the publication of the report of the official in control of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s fate continued until late Wednesday.
For days British politicians have been anxiously awaiting the findings of that senior official, Sue Gray. She is researching party gate, to all the parties in Downing Street while the rest of the country was in lockdown to prevent the spread of the corona virus. Johnson has promised to make a statement in the House of Commons as soon as he receives her report – but that was not the case on Wednesday night.
Also read the comment: The British Prime Minister is undermining his own authority
What started as a relatively simple investigation into lockdown violations by political advisers and officials has turned into a huge threat to the prime minister. The list of parties got longer and longer and Boris Johnson turned out to have been present at some of the get-togethers. At the beginning of this week came again new facts out and it turned out that on Johnson’s birthday in June 2020, rules were probably broken too. His partner Carrie had arranged a surprise moment in the ministerial meeting room, including cake and singing. While in 2020 enough Britons could not celebrate their birthday at all.
Regain trust
It is unclear how much support Johnson still has in his party. Many Tories have said that based on what Sue Gray determines, they determine whether they still have faith in Johnson. Should they wish to withdraw their trust in him, they must do so by letter to Graham Brady, the chairman of the Conservative backbenchers committee. When 15 percent of the House of Commons – that is 54 out of 359 Conservative MPs – send such a letter, a vote of confidence on Johnson’s leadership will follow.
But Boris Johnson is not going to wait for that. He does everything in his power to save his political life. In recent days, he is said to have held all kinds of one-on-one conversations with Conservative MPs to maintain their support. Or, more likely, to win it back. The kind of conversations critics say he should have had much sooner.
Tories faction leader Rees-Mogg warns of the negative consequences of a leadership change
Last week, Johnson and some ministers who support him already counterattacked, announcing measures that they think would suit party and grassroots support. The prime minister is now also standing from his own party under pressure to reverse an increase in social security contributions, which would take effect in April. It would save UK taxpayers 1.25 percent in income and would be much more in line with Conservative principles of keeping taxes low. It is not without reason that Rishi Sunak, finance minister and possible candidate to succeed Johnson as party leader, would have the increase the “premier tax” named.
Furthermore, a personnel cleaning action is very likely. A double even; of both his inner circle people will have to leave like the staff at Downing Street in a broader sense. Johnson will want to show that he takes the allegations of a drinking culture, with weekly Friday drinks for which the staff allegedly bought a special drinks refrigerator, and that he wants to address that culture. According to the left-wing newspaper The Daily Mirror Johnson even encouraged the drinks to “blow off steam”, despite the corona measures in force.
No contradiction organized
As for the circle of advisers close to him, Johnson a fundamental problem for a long time. As a political loner, he does not trust others easily. Since Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain left in November 2020, both pivotal figures for Johnson during the Brexit campaign, he has few people left to help him think through strategies, outline the consequences of decisions for him and dare to contradict him. The ruthless Cummings is the one feeding the British media with tips and tricks don’t miss a chance to show that Johnson is lying.
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Meanwhile, Tories loyal to Johnson — or who don’t see this as the right time for a leadership struggle — try to salvage what can be salvaged. They whitewash the birthday surprise – is a cake and a quick birthday song a party already? Tories faction leader Jacob Rees-Mogg warned of negative consequences of a leadership change. He said a new leader for a fresh mandate would call elections and the question then is whether the House of Commons who owe their seat to Boris Johnson’s big victory in 2019 can stay in office. A disguised threat and also false; with earlier changes of prime minister, elections often followed much later.
During Wednesday’s weekly Question Time, opposition leader Keir Starmer (Labour) tried to elicit statements from Johnson about a possible departure, if Sue Gray’s findings show that Johnson misled parliament with his previous statements. Johnson previously said that to his knowledge no corona rules have been violated. And he said he wasn’t warned about the get-togethers, which Sue Gray may also disprove. Johnson didn’t want to know about quitting and pointed to the achievements of his government, for example that the economy is now growing rapidly because England has not closed because of the Omikron variant. But everyone in Westminster knew this was an intermission number, awaiting Sue Gray’s report.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of January 27, 2022