Thinking that it can be pulled at any time into a war in Eastern Europe after the escalation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration he has redoubled efforts to close other international conflict fronts, seeking to speed up a nuclear deal with Iran, and ease strained relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
But the most responsive approach of Washington is developing – not without setbacks – with a country that the Kremlin has turned into its most distant satellite: the Chavista Venezuela. Senior US officials this month held their highest-level meeting in several years with Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro.
From the White House they described the session with Maduro as “cordial” and successful in establishing a personal relationship. And although they later sought to play down the importance of the meeting, after criticism from the Democratic caucus itself (including the powerful senator from New Jersey, Robert Menéndez), the lines of communication between Caracas and Washington remain “open.” With pros and cons.
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The Trump administration had courted North Korea’s ruthless leader, Kim Jong Un, to prevent a nuclear war. In contrast, he launched a “maximum pressure” campaign against Maduro, a figure widely vilified by the Venezuelan and Cuban diaspora in the United States. The trump hardliner it was a gift to Florida Republicans, who made substantial gains at the polls in districts where exile is intense. And the US ban on Venezuelan crude devastated the OPEC nation’s oil industry, which was already in serious economic trouble.
At the same time, the United States closed its embassy in Caracas and direct flights between the United States and Venezuela were suspended. Furthermore, the United States Department of Justice accused Maduro of drug trafficking charges, and Donald Trump endorsed Juan Guaidó as the legitimate leader of the country. But none of that worked, they question Joe Biden’s red circle.
The Venezuelan opposition, always fractured, has fallen into internal struggles, while Maduro’s control of power, supported by his military leg, has only strengthened, along with Russia’s footprint in Venezuela. This encourages a policy change under Biden: seduce Maduro with the purchase of oil and the return of American companies to Venezuela, something that could balance the accounts of the battered petro-state.
All in exchange for a gradual takeoff from Moscow. Among Republicans, this was read as a sign of weakness by the current president, worried about the economy and the impact of the rise in gasoline in inflation. But from the Biden administration they explain that even with the reactivation of the Venezuelan oil company PDVSA and the reentry of the North American Chevron, the Venezuelan oil industry is in a desperate situation, with poor infrastructure that would require billions of dollars of investment to improve, and years to significantly increase production: today only could grow to 15 percent of Saudi production, with which gasoline prices at US service stations would be little pushed back. The objective of the White House is different: a rapprochement for geopolitical purposes that undermines the deep Russian-Venezuelan alliance.
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That alliance is fundamentally based, according to Washington’s analysis, on oil agreements. But Russia’s military cooperation with Venezuela is essential for the regime, as is also the case in Cuba. Between 2006 and 2013, Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, bought russian military equipment for almost 4 billion dollars. In late 2018, two long-range, nuclear-capable Russian Tu-160 bombers arrived at Maiquetía Airport, and were greeted by senior Venezuelan military officials. And since then, Moscow has sent dozens of Russian soldiers and tons of equipment to Venezuela.
But today the Russian army is now under so much pressure in Ukraine that the United States wants to sow doubt in Moscow about its network of alliances in Latin America: Moscow summoned Maduro’s number two, Delcy Rodriguez, to a meeting in Turkey to review their strategic alliance. The Venezuelan government, not wanting to break with Russia, but fearing that Moscow could cut off its support, stressed by the conflict in Eastern Europe, wants to continue direct talks.
Conversations that could be resumed in Mexico, with the mediation of the president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, which understands that harmony with the United States is necessary for the region. Maduro understands in the same sense that a thaw of the isolation imposed by the United States would be accompanied by a reopening of the European Union.
Of course, in opposition, even the Democrats who are facing Biden warn, this could lead to mature buy time while its economy improves, to break the agreement when Moscow helps him again, opening the way for Putin to expand his reach in a country that is three hours by plane from the Florida coast, a permanent threat in case of a confrontation between the United States and Russia.
