Biden made his statement at a press conference in Tokyo, where he spoke with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. When asked whether the US would be willing to intervene militarily in the defense of Taiwan as opposed to that of Ukraine, Biden’s answer was clear: “Yes, that’s a commitment we made. ‘
The White House hastened to soften Biden’s statement. “As the president said, our policy has not changed,” the statement said. “He also reaffirmed our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with military means to defend itself.”
Still, Biden’s statement clearly goes against the US policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which remains deliberately vague about whether the US would come to Taiwan militarily to aid a Chinese invasion. In doing so, the US sought a balance between support for de facto independent Taiwan, and good relations with Beijing, which sees Taiwan as a renegade province.
Change of course
It is the second time that Biden has deviated from the official US position: in October 2021 he already said he was willing to assist Taiwan militarily. That ruling was also overturned by the White House. While some experts already saw this statement as an important change of course, according to others it was only a one-off ‘slip of the tongue’.
As Biden reiterates his dissenting position, it is clear that there is indeed a change in Taiwan policy. “This formulation is very clever,” said Su Tzuyun, division head of the National Institute of Defense Research in Taiwan. “It is a clear signal to prevent China from embarking on a military adventure, without documenting it in official documents.”
US Taiwan policy dates back to 1979, when Washington cut diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favor of Beijing. According to the Taiwan Relations Act, the US has only maintained diplomatic relations with Beijing since then, but supports Taiwan, including through arms supplies. The US was deliberately vague about military intervention to avoid bold actions by either side.
But with Beijing itself regularly ramping up tensions over Taiwan, experts are debating whether this “strategic ambiguity” is outdated. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said he wants to “reunite” Taiwan with the motherland under his rule, and Chinese jets regularly skim Taiwan’s airspace. Biden said China is “flirturing with danger.”
Fear of more conflicts
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Beijing’s refusal to condemn it, is fueling fears of more conflict. Moreover, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would profoundly destabilize world trade. For example, Japan imports 90 percent of its crude oil through the Taiwan Strait. “If Taiwan becomes a kind of Chinese Hawaii, it will be very dangerous for Japan and South Korea,” said Su.
Biden made his statement during a visit to Japan and South Korea, with which he wants to strengthen ties to counterbalance China’s growing influence. In Japan, he kicked off a new regional trade agreement, and he will meet with the leaders of the so-called Quad group – in addition to Japan, India and Australia.
The Chinese side reacted assertively to Biden’s statement, through a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry: “No one should underestimate China’s dedication, willpower and strong ability to defend national sovereignty.” According to the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Taipei, Biden’s words reflect “a firm commitment to Taiwan.”