“It’s the economy, fool & rdquor; It was the backdrop against which Bill Clinton defeated President Bush Sr. (the good one) the 1992 elections. Today, throughout the West, what dominates is a large uncertainty. No government knows what will happen in the coming months. Inflation has crept in like an unexpected and unwanted visitor and has forced central banks to liquidate the era of cheap money. And the war in Ukraine has upset all expectations. What will happen if Putin turns off the gas tap? This is the ghost that haunts Europe today.
But, meanwhile, all governments temporize and put on a good face. In America GDP has fallen somewhat in the first two trimesters, but no one (not Biden or Yellen or the Federal Reserve) believes there is a recession. Impossible, with an unemployment rate of 3.5%, one of the lowest in history. And neither the Federal Reserve nor the ECB say what they will do in September. Rates will go up, yes, but they don’t know how much. Everything will depend on the IPC.
In Spain things are not very different, although the country is. The unemployment rate (going down) is at 12.5%, not in the American 3.5%. and inflation, 10.8%, is almost two points higher than the European average. Also public debt is higher. The floor is more slippery. But the reality is that today there are 20.4 million jobs, much higher than before the pandemic, and that the number of unemployed has dropped below 3 million, for the first time in 14 years. Y permanent jobs increasenot the storms.
GDP grew by 1.1% in the second quarter, 6.6% at an annual rate, while the European average is 0.7% and 4%. These are the figures with which Sánchez protected himself in his appearance at the end of the course on Friday. And the official GDP growth forecasts (4.3% this year and 2.7% in 2023) are very similar to those of the Barcelona Chamber (4% and 2.6%) and are not far from those of the IMF (4% and 2%).
So what is the reason why Sánchez’s message (there are problems, but we are doing well) has lost credibility? One that an inflation of 10.8% greatly affects family economies. Two, that the progressive government andThe coalition of the investiture transmit more instability than security. And three, what the war in Ukraine has changed everything and has created great uncertainty. The IMF itself admits that all its forecasts could be blown up if Putin cuts off the gas supply and causes -as a weapon of war- a recession in Europe. And the Spanish know that we are not the most resilient country.
The truth is that, for various reasons and the erosion of power, the PP of Feijóo and Moreno Bonilla has had a great victory in Andalusia by achieving an absolute majority and not depending on Vox. Now the PP surpasses the PSOE in all the polls and cracks the Vox electorate, which would have lower results than in 2019. And Feijóo repeats that Sánchez is the past and that he will win the elections.
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It may be, but history is not written and while Feijóo is a calculating politician, Sánchez is a daredevil who firmly believes in him. In his end-of-year message, he stressed that he would protect the working middle class, who believed in the “European homeland”, with Spain as a first-rate partner (for having 30% of the regasification plants), and in the commitment to ecological transition and green energy. All to the left, carefully (social democracy), but resorting to some demagoguery: “If we have Botín and Sánchez Galán (chairman of Iberdrola) against us, we are doing well”.
We are already in a long electoral stretch that will end in December 2023. The two leaders will disqualify each other. And whatever the electoral result (and even if there is later some kind of pact between the two big parties) one of the two leaders would have to die. Feijóo thinks that Sánchez is at the end of the cycle and Sánchez is stirred, invents a politburo and believes not that it can, but that it will come back. He trusts his proven resilience, but in the famous socialist primaries he still did not have the wear and tear of having governed. Now he has suffered, as he himself says, “the pandemic, a volcano and the war in Ukraine & rdquor ;. And Núñez Feijóo is a colder and less arrogant professional than Susana Diaz.