Overtaking probable: as long as the Croatians beat Armenia. We risk finding Holland or the Czech Republic
– leverkusen (germany)
And we finally got rid of the playoff nightmare. It’s not like Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022. There isn’t a solid Sweden waiting for us, entrenched in twenty meters, there isn’t a North Macedonia that hides in the penalty area and condemns us with the only opportunity in 90 minutes. Italy enters the European Championship through the main door, or almost. If the group had won it would have been seeded. Coming second, with a lot of suffering, she is now poised between third and fourth tier. It will be the group of Croatia, Turkey and Wales that will position us: at the moment we are in third, but the last. Overtaking is probable, as long as Croatia wins against Armenia.
Third tier
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The Azzurri are therefore bottom of the draw but reigning champions. It’s not a paradox. The European Championship has always not automatically qualified the holders of the trophy who have to earn their passport on the pitch. Four years ago we were seeded thanks to the fantastic qualifying group with Mancini. The situation has changed and Spalletti has restored a ranking that was becoming worrying. We will certainly not be the favorites in Germany from 14 June to 14 July 2024, but we will start from scratch or almost. And in the final stages Italy often multiplies its value. Now, however, it’s time to think about the draw for the six groups of the final phase.
The situation
| First Band | Second Band | Third Band | Fourth Band |
|---|---|---|---|
we go to Hamburg
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The 24 qualifiers will meet on December 2nd in Hamburg (6pm) for the composition of the groups. In truth, there will be 21 known teams: host Germany, the 10 winners of the qualifying groups and the 10 runners-up, ordered in that order and then based on the points won among the top five of each group. There remain 3 slots to be assigned to the 3 winners of the playoffs in Serie A, B and C. A discussion which fortunately does not concern us but which involves, for example, Ukraine inserted in Serie B: for Rebrov, winning the European Championship is still possible.
Seeded
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In summary: four brackets of 6 national teams each, to make up the 6 groups. The risk is all in the first range. Here are Germany, Portugal, Spain, France, England and Belgium. Choosing is not easy. If they weren’t hosting, the last Germany that looked a bit like this would be preferable. But Nagelsmann plays at home. All in all, perhaps Tedesco’s Belgium is better: we have already surpassed them at Euro 2016 and Euro 2021 with Conte and Mancini.
Second tier
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In the second tier there will certainly be Denmark (currently the most dangerous), Hungary, Austria and Albania. Plus, one between Croatia and Turkey and one between Romania and Switzerland. If the Croatians win against Armenia, easy, and Turkey lose against Wales, it’s Modric’s turn, otherwise Montella will fly high. To go to the second tier, Switzerland must beat Romania.
Dreams and nightmares
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Italy is currently in the third tier. Here are Holland, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, all safe. We do not. Croatia can reach the fourth pot if they win but remain second behind Turkey. Or we can find Turkey if Croatia overtakes it in the group. Finally, in fourth place for now there are Croatia, Serbia and Switzerland. The terrible group from the third? France, Denmark and Switzerland. The ideal one? Belgium, Albania and one from the playoffs. The terrible group finishing in fourth place? France, Denmark and Holland. The best one? Belgium, Albania and Slovenia.
How much Italy
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The last 90 minutes will be decisive. And then there are still the three X’s of the three playoffs, organized like a tennis scoreboard with two semi-finals and a final. The venue for the final will be drawn by draw on 23 November in Nyon. At the moment there should be Poland-Estonia and Wales with a draw from B where everything is still confused. Georgia-Luxembourg and Greece-Kazakhstan in Serie C. But the picture can change. It will certainly be a very Italian European Championship with Spalletti, Rossi (Hungary), Calzona (Slovakia), Montella (Turkey) and Tedesco (Belgium) on the bench, where Made in Italy stands out. In Germany there will be 6 groups: the first and second teams plus the four best third-placed teams advance to the round of 16. We’ll talk about it in June. Meanwhile, here we are and it was no longer a given.
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