After days of speculation, Nancy Pelosi finally visited Taiwan and gave the residents and politicians of the East Asian country a heart. The Chinese government, which considers Taiwan a renegade province, has reacted furiously. The United States will be “punished,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said.
Has this met the fear that many politicians and commentators already had prior to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan? Will this be followed by a lengthy diplomatic joust between China and the US and the bleak threat of military escalation? Should the 82-year-old Pelosi have listened to the warnings of, among others, US President Joe Biden – and the threats from Beijing – and avoid the Taiwanese capital Taipei?
Mark Gongloff notes in an opinion piece for Bloomberg Note that while Pelosi is the most senior US government official to visit Taiwan since Newt Gingrich in 1997, she is by no means the only one. ‘Politicians from both sides have been on the island for the past year without causing so much commotion. And Pelosi (member of the Democratic Party) even has praise from Republican senators and even Fox News got.’
Pelosi had little to lose with her brawny language towards China, which has put her and her fellow Democrats on the right side of public opinion ahead of the November midterm elections in which she could lose her job. In addition, with her visit she highlighted awareness of the shortcomings in the US strategy for Taiwan. In that respect, Pelosi may have done the country a favor.’
Also Brian P. Kleinfounder of RidgePoint Global, a strategic consulting firm, and a former US diplomat, points out in an op-ed in the US magazine Barron’s on the longstanding ‘strategic ambiguity’ in relations with China and Taiwan. Washington recognizes one Chinese government based in Beijing and does not support Taiwanese independence, but also disagrees with China’s claim over Taiwan. This has been the status quo for decades. As long as everything remains the same, there has been no need to clarify what happens when this fragile peace breaks.
“Pelosi’s visit doesn’t change that. The de facto US diplomatic mission known as the American Institute in Taiwan is not being upgraded to an embassy. The sale of weapons remains strictly defensive in nature. However, China’s response to Pelosi’s trip could end this ambiguity.
That doesn’t mean making China an enemy, as some say, or supporting unilateral Taiwanese independence, which the majority of Taiwanese don’t support. But it would serve as a much-needed deterrent to clarifying where the US red lines are now. They must convey a clear message that immediate defensive support for the Taiwanese military, as well as major economic actions, will result from China’s use of force to take Taiwan.
“A coordinated response to any Chinese aggression against Taiwan must also include Japan, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asian countries and India. This is not the US against China, but the greater Indo-Pacific rallying against actions that destabilize the region. With no apparent repercussions, China is likely to miscalculate the cost of aggression and expand its military activities far beyond the Taiwan Strait. Pelosi’s visit has only increased the urgency to clarify an outdated policy that has remained ambiguous for too long.”
But the American newspaper The Washington Post is a lot less positive in an editorial. ‘Successful foreign policy combines high principles with smart execution at the right time. Pelosi’s visit to show solidarity with Taiwan showed the former, but not the latter.’
According to the paper, the top priority for the US is now the Russian war in Ukraine and its consequences on global food and energy markets. The Biden administration cannot afford a distraction, let alone a repeat of the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, which many Americans have forgotten but which lasted eight months and two days (…). China eventually withdrew. The Biden administration is now in a position to hope that it can similarly maintain both the peace and territorial integrity of Taiwan against a China much stronger than it was a quarter of a century ago and not led by the cautious Jiang Zemin. but by the aggressive Mr Xi.’
“The United States must never sacrifice its principles or give in to Chinese threats. All the more reason to prepare well where and when you will face China. No, thanks to Mrs. Pelosi, the Biden administration is forced to react and improvise.”
Clarissa Weissan American-Taiwanese journalist in Taipei, is in an op-ed for the American channel CNN less gloomy: ‘There is a shocking discrepancy between how the outside world perceives Taiwan (as a potential focal point for a world war), and how we in Taiwan see Taiwan (our precious home where we live). And part of that contradiction is because the international conversation about Taiwan is filtered through a geopolitical lens and almost always in the context of China.
“But what’s most frustrating about the response to Pelosi’s visit is not the prophetic declaration of impending doom, but the anticipation of fear and surprise that follows when people realize we’re not all panicking in Taiwan. (…) Threats from China are nothing new. They have been a part of my life, my parents’ lives and their parents’ lives for as long as almost everyone in my family can remember. Taiwan has been under threat from the People’s Republic of China for nearly 70 years. The various crises in the Taiwan Strait are proof of that.’
According to Minxin Peic, a Chinese-American political scientist and expert on governance in China and US-Asia relations at Claremont McKenna College, Pelosi is “barely responsible for the current heightened tensions” around Taiwan. “Even if she had decided to skip Taipei on her journey through Asia, China’s warmongering toward Taiwan would have continued to increase, potentially sparking another crisis in the Taiwan Strait in the near future,” he wrote in an op-ed. the American newspaper LA Times.
Contrary to the prevailing narrative, this is not primarily because Xi is committed to the reunification of Taiwan during his reign. While reunification is indeed one of his long-term goals (it would be a crowning achievement for both him and the Communist Party of China in general), any attempt to achieve it by force would be extremely costly. It could even pose existential risks to the Communist Party regime, whose survival would be jeopardized by a failed military campaign (…).’
“The main reasons for China’s current saber-rattling over Taiwan are more direct. Chinese authorities are making it clear to Taiwanese leaders and their supporters in the West that their relations with each other and with China are on an unacceptable trajectory. The implication is that if they don’t change course, China will have no choice but to escalate.”
However, according to Yuan-Ming Chiao, associate professor of international relations at Wenzao Ursuline University in Taipei, it is ultimately up to the Taiwanese, not American politicians, to chart the course with China. In an opinion piece for the American channel NBC he writes: “Pelosi’s call for solidarity can best be realized in the US, through the passage of Congressional legislation that will allow Taiwan to prosper while preserving peace in the Indo-Pacific region. This leaves it well armed with credible deterrents, but gives the country the flexibility to deal with Beijing. Also helpful is support that enhances Taiwan’s reputation by admitting the country as an independent member of international forums and furthering its economic, technological and administrative capabilities.
“But it is Taiwanese citizens who will pay the price when things get out of hand through calculation or miscalculation. Pelosi’s delegation has left, the authoritarian regime of Chinese President Xi Jinping continues.
“We in Taiwan have chosen to confront China with our standpoint: upholding our democracy, defying authoritarianism just a few miles from mainland China and reminding the communist regime in Beijing daily that we will not be intimidated. ‘