A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could take place as early as next year, US Admiral Mike Gilday said last week. “I don’t want to be alarmist, but we can’t wish that away.” His statements followed those of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is entering his third term as leader of the ruling Communist Party, China’s plans to annex Taiwan are accelerating.
Why are the Americans making these statements, now that relations in Southeast Asia are already so tense?
About the author
Joan Veldkamp is a China and Japan expert and freelance journalist.
Opinions on this differ. It’s a bluff, say critics who believe the US military wants to safeguard its defense spending domestically. It would also be an attempt to influence the US Congress. That will soon make a decision on a sizeable aid package to Taiwan worth 10 billion dollars, in the form of weapons. However, there is already a lot of support for this, because support for democratic Taiwan is virtually the only topic on which Republicans and Democrats agree.
Other experts believe the Americans want more action from President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan. There is insufficient confidence in the decisiveness of the Taiwanese army, including among the population itself.
morale
On a recent visit to the capital Taipei, reservists, just back from exercise, told me that there is much to improve in morale and that there is a serious shortage of new soldiers. Reforms are needed and conscription – abolished in the 1990s – should be reintroduced.
Many Taiwanese citizens also expect that they will one day have to fight for their lives. They, like the Ukrainians, want to have a defense strategy. But the authorities are far from ready. Out of frustration about this, tech billionaire Robert Tsao recently made more than $32 million available for civilian training.
Defensive Measures
Despite differing opinions about the intentions of the Americans, many Taiwanese take Gilday and Blinken’s statements very seriously. The Chinese military exercises that began in early August, virtually encircling Taiwan and continuously crossing the sea border between the two countries, have never stopped. And in July, US security officials indicated that China is already taking defensive measures to protect its economy in the event of sanctions.
Concerns are also mounting about Chinese President Xi, who is more powerful than ever since the recent party congress. Does he still make rational decisions when it comes to ‘the renegade province’ Taiwan? At the congress, Xi again stated that the reunification with China will be achieved without any doubt.
Urgency hard to find
How does The Hague react? A sense of urgency seems far-fetched here. But the Dutch government would also be wise to take the American predictions seriously by working on a scenario. Don’t shout: ‘We have been completely taken by surprise’ when a Chinese blockade or an invasion of Taiwan is a fact, but already list a number of core issues.
What does a possible sanction package look like? What is happening in a European context? Which essential raw materials and goods from China and Taiwan (computer chips) can we stock up on? And if the US military gets involved in the fight around Taiwan and asks for support from its allies, how do we respond?
At the same time, the Dutch government should urge the business community to adopt a strategy. A war in Asia will have disastrous consequences for world trade and for doing business in and with China. But at least as important is the question of whether foreign companies will be able to stay there in good decency if the authoritarian Chinese regime strikes mercilessly?
The exodus from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine is a painful example. Decoupling as much as possible while you still can, and becoming as little dependent as possible on China, may already be necessary.