In all the crises, fierce conflicts and internal divisions that have plagued the EU over the past 15 years, there was hardly one topic: enlargement.
Even before the last accession, that of Croatia in 2013, the subject faded into the background. Certainly: it was occasionally still on the agenda, especially by member states in the east. Heads of government hold a discussion round about it once a year, especially with a view to the Western Balkans. But the subject has never really become politically sensitive in recent years.
That peace has come to an end after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In addition to all the other fundamental questions facing the EU in the aftermath of the invasion, enlargement is suddenly back at the center of attention.
And that discussion goes beyond the question of whether or not Ukraine can become a candidate and which conditions must be met exactly. On Friday, the European Commission gave an impetus to this, in its advice to make Ukraine a candidate member. According to Brussels, before any negotiations can start, the country still has to meet a large number of conditions. For Moldova, that list of conditions is even more extensive, while Georgia still has a lot to do before it can become a candidate at all. The Commission report will be on the table next week when government leaders discuss whether they can unanimously support the new candidates.
Existential questions
Enlargement also confronts the EU with existential questions about itself. Proponents and opponents wonder: is the EU actually ready for another round of enlargements? If the new and old candidates (particularly countries in the western Balkans) were all to join, that would mean a major push eastwards. An enlargement wave, comparable to that of 2004 when ten new Member States joined at once: Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Romania and Bulgaria followed three years later, and Croatia in 2013.
It is still those enlargements and the public sentiment about it in mostly Western European member states that make politicians wary of new entrants. The rapid growth of the EU and the resulting labor migration also played an important role in the Brexit discussion in the United Kingdom. Significant was the statement of then-new European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who in 2014 spoke of ‘enlargement fatigue’ and announced that no one would be added in his term.
Christophe Hillion sniffs, remembering that comment. “As if the EU could afford such fatigue!” Hillion is professor of European Law at the University of Oslo and has published extensively on EU enlargement over the past twenty years. In the current discussion, he sees signs, with some hope, of a new EU engagement. Because after years of ignoring the theme, the EU is now being overtaken by the facts, he says.
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“If you want to be a geopolitical player and survive as an EU, you have to recognize that you have responsibilities,” he says. “So that the western Balkans do not fall back into violence, or come under the influence of other superpowers. And so that the war in Ukraine doesn’t turn into something even more terrible. Enlargement is one of the geopolitical tools the EU has for this.”
Copenhagen moment
It also means that a crucial question will be on the table at the summit next week. Hillion calls it a ‘potential new Copenhagen moment’, referring to the EU summit in 1993 when the then member states reached out to Eastern Europe and set the requirements for new EU countries.
“This isn’t just about Ukraine’s candidacy: it’s a test for the entire EU, and the political project it wants to be. As the counterweight to authoritarianism, with members who voluntarily and democratically decide to belong. If EU countries are unable to commit themselves even in wartime, it would be hugely damaging.”
If the EU does indeed take up the geopolitical challenge and work towards enlargement, then an ‘existential moment’ will dawn for the Union, says Steven Blockmans, research director at think tank CEPS and professor of EU external relations in Amsterdam. “The EU needs to think about what kind of player it wants to be vis-à-vis its nationals, Member States, acceding countries and international partners.”
Blockmans is in favor of expansion. An analysis to which he contributed, judged in recent weeks already that Ukraine and Moldova should be eligible for candidate membership, but Georgia not yet. Blockmans acknowledges that expansion is a major intervention.
Ukraine would become the fifth largest country in the Union in terms of population. This has immediate consequences for the voting balance in the European Council and for the composition of the parliament. In addition, the Union will change somewhat in character. “It means greater weight for Eastern Europe. The war has already put those countries in the spotlight more and that affects the policy of the Union as a whole.”
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And then there’s the money. Blockmans: „It is, on average, a poorer country than most member states. There must be more structural funds going in the direction and countries that make a net contribution to the budget will want to think about the conditions for accession.”
If indeed seven or eight other countries qualify for membership with Ukraine in the coming years, the Union will first have to overhaul itself, says Blockmans. “Decisions about one’s own organisation, the distribution of money, the borders of the EU, the relationship with the new neighbours, safeguarding the values of the EU: these are all questions that mark the existential moment.”
Treaty changes in the Union are a difficult matter. And even though the European Parliament and a number of important leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and Mario Draghi have called for a treaty change, there is little enthusiasm across the board, Blockmans estimates.
There are plenty of ideas about reforms. You could curb the veto to ease decision-making. It is already possible to curtail the Commission. Now each country has one Commissioner. The question is whether you will also be able to make decisions with 35 people at the table. The European Parliament, which already has more than 700 members, should also be revised.
Major renovation
Hillion emphasizes that, above all, the procedure for expansion must change. The EU’s engagement with potential newcomers should be much stronger, he said. “We ask new member states to adopt the full EU rulebook, but do not prepare them at all for what it means to ultimately be a member state and participate in decision-making.”
The Union is therefore heading towards an existential moment when it comes to efficiency, the distribution of power and money and the safeguarding of European values about democracy and the rule of law. Yet little is said about the major renovation.
Blockmans: „That is correct, but it is in the back of the minds of all sitting members. They may not want to touch it for political reasons. They can also say: actual accession is a long way off, so we are not talking about it yet.”