After Bitcoin, Ether & Co. experienced a brilliant catch-up rally in the first few months of the year, the crypto market has recently become quieter. However, investment expert Mark Yusko sees this as just a temporary breather before the next bull run, which will take Bitcoin to unprecedented heights.
• Mark Yusko: Bitcoin will hit $150,000 levels next year
• Approval of the Bitcoin spot ETFs should increase the mass suitability of the crypto market
• Yusko identifies Bitcoin halving as a second price driver
Mark Yusko expects Bitcoin to surpass $150,000 as early as 2024, which would equate to a rally that is breathtaking even by crypto standards. Yusko, chief investor at US wealth manager Morgan Creek Capital Management, identifies two reasons why the Bitcoin price will break into six figures in the coming year.
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Approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs as Rally Triggers?
On the one hand, it is the imminent approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF that he is expecting. Unlike a futures ETF, which invests in Bitcoin contracts without having to own the tokens yourself, a spot ETF actually holds Bitcoin as the underlying asset and represents the physical units of cryptocurrency purchased by the issuers became.
So far, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs. However, things seem to be moving now. As early as October 2021, the asset manager Grayscale applied to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Bitcoin spot ETF. However, the SEC initially rejected this application. Grayscale then filed a lawsuit against the SEC. On August 29, the US Circuit Court of Appeals returned its verdict in Grayscale’s favour. The SEC should not have dismissed the Bitcoin Spot ETF’s application for approval that easily. As a result, bitcoin spot ETF approvals have become a little more likely.
Yusko also provided a potential timeframe for when a bitcoin spot ETF could be approved by the SEC. BlackRock’s bitcoin spot ETF will be the first to receive SEC approval. “Why should BlackRock get the nod? Because it’s the one you know,” Yusko told precious metals and crypto portal Kitco News.
The result of the launch of bitcoin spot ETFs would be a rally that will significantly increase the “fair value” of bitcoin, Yusko says. “I believe the fair value of bitcoin today is $55,000,” Yusko said. However, this supposed “fair value” determined by Yusko will double in the future. In addition to the forthcoming approval of the Bitcoin spot ETFs, according to Yusko, one event in spring 2024 in particular will cause prices to rise.
Bitcoin halving as a second price driver
The next bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place in mid-April 2024 – an event that will reduce the block rewards for miners from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin per newly created block. Due to the lower rewards, the number of bitcoins will tend to decrease due to the halving – with the result that the supply of the original crypto tokens will become scarce. If demand is stable, this leads to a price increase in bitcoin. The 2024 halving will be the fourth of its kind, after which the rewards should remain stable until 2028. The mining rewards are halved every four years until all Bitcoins are expected to be mined in 2140. In crypto circles, Bitcoin halvings have been repeatedly described as potential price drivers since Bitcoin was created in 2008 due to their supply-limiting effect. Yusko also follows this argument.
“I have logic for where I think the price will go and why I think it will go there. I am sure that the exchange traded spot market will influence this development. But the main reason for the price action is the halving cycle – one the most brilliant ideas,” said Yusko. “By mid-summer next year, $100,000 will be a fair value. But there will be speculation […] So let’s say we’ve crossed $100,000 and are at $150,000. That seems plausible to me,” is Yusko’s bullish forecast.
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