Will she or will she not? Will Nancy Pelosi indeed be visiting Taiwan soon, or will she just avoid it? And if she goes, will that be the fuse in the powder keg, the spark that leads to a military conflict between China and the United States?
For the 82-year-old Speaker of the US House of Representatives, a visit to Taiwan would be a logical end to her career. Because she has often outspoken in favor of more democracy in China and for a better human rights situation.
In 1991, two years after the uprisings in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, she unfurled there together with colleagues from the House of Representatives a small banner in memory of those uprisings. “To those who have died for democracy,” it read.
China did not thank her and spoke of a “premeditated farce”. The soldiers present raised their hands for the foreign cameras that wanted to record the event. The CNN reporter and his cameraman were detained for several hours. But it was.
The China of 2022 is much more powerful than the China of 1991, and also much more assertive. As the Financial Times around mid-July message that Pelosi would like to visit Taiwan, China whispers that such a thing really can’t be done. President Xi Jinping warned Biden in their phone call last Thursday that he would be playing with fire if he let Pelosi go to Taiwan.
Implicit acknowledgment
China sees Taiwan as a renegade province that must sooner or later be brought back under Chinese rule, by force if necessary. While the US recognizes Beijing as China’s legitimate government, it is also committed to providing Taiwan with the resources the island needs to defend itself against violent capture by China.
For China, a visit by Pelosi, party colleague of Biden and third in rank after Kamala Harris, is an implicit recognition of Taiwan as a separate nation.
Read also Accidentally or on purpose: Biden offers greater strategic clarity around Taiwan
This is especially sensitive for China, because America is already nibbling at the status quo around Taiwan. Biden has said three times that he would defend Taiwan if necessary. This is in contrast to the US policy of so-called “strategic ambiguity”, whereby the US deliberately leaves open whether the US military will really come to the rescue of Taiwan.
Military exercises with live ammunition near the Pingtan Islands off the coast of Taiwan, probably planned for some time, now seem intended as a Chinese warning against the visit.
Chinese political commentator and firebrand Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the Chinese party tabloid de Global Times, even reported on Twitter that he would find it justified if China would shoot Pelosi’s plane out of the sky if necessary. That tweet can no longer be found: Hu says that Twitter told him to delete the tweetbecause otherwise his account would be blocked.
Reason for war
The Chinese military won’t go as far as Hu goes, but recently a Chinese army unit posted the short message: “Prepare for war” on social media. That completes the picture: Pelosi’s visit could spark a war, or at least an armed conflict, between China and the United States.
In any case, that fear also seems to be playing tricks on President Biden. He doesn’t like Pelosi’s visit. He apparently thinks the risk of a conflict with China is too great, and calls such a visit “not a good idea at the moment”.
The great danger is that both presidents could feel compelled to respond militarily to each other almost against their will
He has, formally speaking, no influence on it whatsoever: after all, representatives of the people in democratic countries are allowed to know for themselves what they are doing and where they are traveling to.
Yet the chance of a war or armed conflict is less than all the drumming suggests. If only because the presidents of both countries would rather not have such a conflict at the moment.
Xi is keen to be reappointed as supreme party leader this fall. Until then, he probably mainly wants peace and stability. That is difficult enough: the economy is no longer growing and there are still constant new lockdowns due to corona.
Some analysts suggest that a war with the US would be a good thing to unite all of China behind Xi, but Xi does not need a war for that: his position is already strong enough.
Fighter Planes
It seems more likely that China would use a visit from Pelosi to move a little further towards Taiwan. For example, China could fly Chinese warplanes through Taiwanese airspace for the first time, for example to accompany Pelosi’s flight to the Taiwanese capital Taipei. And once that precedent is set, China can continue.
The great danger remains that both presidents may feel compelled to respond militarily to each other almost against their will.
Also read this opinion piece: Nancy Pelosi must visit Taiwan
For example, if China were to do nothing when Pelosi flew in a military plane to the Taiwanese capital Taipei, then all Chinese threats would turn out to be empty. Then the US can continue with impunity to further separate Taiwan from China. That is the Chinese fear.
The American fear is different: if Pelosi doesn’t go through with her visit, it will send a signal to China that pressure is working on the US, that the US is afraid of the Chinese military and that the US will give in more often in the future if China has enough makes a mess. The US cannot afford that.
For example, if China militarily escorts Pelosi’s plane, forcing it to leave Taiwan or land elsewhere, the US can’t let that happen either.
meanwhile Taiwan will be with the baked pears anyway. If Pelosi doesn’t come, China will know it has a decisive voice in US-Taiwanese relations. That weakens Taiwan’s position. But if Pelosi does come, Taiwan in particular will be punished for it, China has already warned.