With the interview in AD Hoekstra has already caused quite a stir this morning. What makes his statements so striking?
‘Actually, Hoekstra says that the nitrogen discussion has reached an impasse. He indicates in the interview that the CDA is prepared to make concessions. According to him, the cabinet target of 2030 is not sacred. He seems to suggest that the parties will look again at the coalition agreement.
‘The interview has certainly caused a stir, but I don’t see it leading immediately to the fall of the cabinet. It is becoming clear again that the nitrogen crisis is very sensitive within the coalition. The coalition parties are all balancing on a very thin rope.
‘This action by the CDA was already a bit coming. You cannot separate it from the party’s electoral situation. They are partly eaten by the Boer Burger Movement of Caroline van der Plas. With the Provincial Council elections approaching, this is not a pleasant prospect. Hoekstra is under pressure from his supporters, and this is his first step to meet it.
‘You see a similar situation at VVD and ChristenUnie to a slightly lesser extent. These supporters are also increasingly critical of the nitrogen policy. Those parties also have difficulty with the agreements made, and want to look at them more leniently. Rutte said earlier that there are no taboos around the nitrogen crisis. On the other hand, the report of the Remkes committee, which appeared recently, has shown that 2030 is the ultimate deadline to save the nature reserves. In that sense there is therefore no room for revision.’
Can Hoekstra just break open the coalition agreement?
‘No. It is also highly questionable whether Hoekstra really dares to do that. The coalition summit called him this morning, and according to insiders he did not say that he wants to get out of the agreements. If he nevertheless wants to break open the coalition agreement, everything is suddenly in jeopardy. Then other coalition parties will also want all kinds of concessions, and you will in fact end up in a restart of the formation. Hoekstra seems to be afraid of that for the time being.
‘That is also what D66 party leader Jan Paternotte has said to us: ‘Hoekstra has not stated that he wants to break open the coalition agreement.’ D66 wants to stick to the nitrogen agreements and believes that it has all taken far too long.’
It seems that D66 still reacts quite laconically to Hoekstra’s words.
‘That is true, but that is also because Hoekstra is not holding out yet. This in turn leads to surprise and confusion among the other coalition parties. What exactly does the CDA want, and how far is the party willing to go? Those are their questions.
‘Yet a government crisis does not seem to be in anyone’s interest at the moment. The four government parties say that they are always looking for a stable government, so you can’t let things escalate now that the country is facing major problems. Another factor is that VVD, CDA and D66 are currently in poor shape in the polls. Then you as a party are usually not waiting for a crisis.’
Prime Minister Mark Rutte thinks Hoekstra’s statements are borderline from a constitutional point of view. ‘This is possible, but it must remain an exception.’ Is that a harsh warning?
Above all, Rutte wants to prevent the coalition parties from drawing their own plan in the media. It is not often that a minister expresses himself publicly about the course of the cabinet in this way. Rutte knows how important it is to radiate unity as a coalition. The division is there, sure, but communicating with two mouths only leads to more unrest. The atmosphere has not improved within the coalition.
‘Next week the House of Representatives will return from recess to debate the divisions within the cabinet about nitrogen policy. By then there should be a clear story. Otherwise, the tension may rise further.’