The settings of the Aces–Lock match are tingly.
Ace has a place for washing the face. Tomi Natri / AOP
The most interesting game of the day
The settings of the Satakunta Derby in the evening are in every way tingling. With their recent weak results, Aces and Lukko have both fallen right next to the playoff line. Ässat starts in the third derby of the season in ninth place and Lukko is one step lower. The points are of course extremely important for both.
However, the nature of the match is determined even more by the fact that Lukko has beaten Aces in both matches played so far this season. We left for the first local game of the season in Pori on 27.10. from those settings that Ässi had his best episode of the season below. Out of the eight previous matches, the pot shirts had won six, and in the previous matches Tappara had fallen 6–2 and HIFK 4–3. Lukko, on the other hand, was on a strong losing streak of three matches at the time, when Sport, Jukurit and Pelicans had scored a total of 16–5 goals on Lukko.
Ässät went into the match in a frenzy and quite a big favorite. The setting didn’t really suit the people of Pori at the time, but Lukko actually walked over the pack of aces who were playing sloppy. Even though the match was only decided for Luko in overtime, the people of Rauma dominated the game, winning the shots by no less than 66–28 and the expected goal by 3.2–1.5. At that time, at the end of October, Ässä’s upset was completed by the next day’s rematch in Rauma, where Ässä didn’t even score a goal (2–0 for Luko, expected 2.4–1.9).
If there was ever a time in the regular season matches where the win probabilities include the rematch advantage or bonus, then now. Aces, supporters included, are guaranteed not to have forgotten the first local games of the season. Now Ässät gets into the match more as a challenger, even though it played strongly as a guest of KooKoo this week. It certainly suits the spade team better than leaving as a favorite. Ässät have lost seven of their previous nine matches. However, based on the KooKoo match, the team is not in any bigger pain at the moment.
Even the lock isn’t in the best shape at the moment. Below are the home losses for both Sport and SaiPa. Against Sport, Lukko was also bad in terms of play. In addition, the team is currently reeling from the aftermath of the SaiPa match. On the player side, you should take into account Luko’s point scare in the early season Sebastian Revo lowered tone. Repo, who has accumulated 10+10=20 performances throughout the season, has caught only three assist points in his last eight matches. The nature of the first two meetings of the season was very low-scoring. When the last matches of both teams have also been low-scoring both in terms of results and gameplay, the most likely scenario for this match as well is a low-scoring twist
In terms of formations, the people of Pori have to give Luko a bit of a lead, because the optimal formation lacks key attackers Jan-Mikael Järvinen mixed Roope Talaja. Locked Kalle Ervasti is replaced Samuli Piipposena and Niklas Ylitalo I flew in Hämäläinen. When the team is otherwise on the move with the best possible crew, their influence should not be counted.
For this match, I calculate practically the maximum revenge allowance for Ässi. Unfortunately, Veikkaus also knows how to do that. Still, Ässie’s final win with a coefficient of 1.78 is the best bet of the match.
Aces–Lukko starts at 18:30.
The best betting tip of the day
The best betting idea for Friday is the 1.92 odds offered for the 6.5 goals under the regular time of the Ketterä–RoKi match from Mestis. In the statistics of the entire season, both teams are marked as scoring a lot. However, it should be noted that in certain top matches against the top teams of the series (mainly IPK and Kiekko-Espoo), the team’s style of play has not been quite as wildly attacking as average. The number of goals and expected goals in these matches have also fallen well below Ketterä’s averages. I believe that RoKi belongs to Ketterä among the top teams in Mesti, and the approach would also be a little bit more precise than normal.
RoKi, on the other hand, has scored significantly fewer goals than the average in its last away matches, reflected in the statistics of the entire season. The teams will meet again tomorrow, so you can lower the goal expectation a bit. My rating for under 6.5 goals is 52%, so we are talking about an object that is right on the borderline of playability.
Ketterä–RoKi starts at 6:30 p.m.
Among the early bets, the most downward pressure may be in Sunday’s Premier League Liverpool–Fulham match with the home team’s -1.5 handicap. The market’s highest multiplier of 1.77 now offered is hardly valid on Sunday.
Games of the day: –
Total balance of the day’s games for the year: 130/230/99%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.