Since the devastating war against Iraq in the 1980s, which the Persians still call the Imposed War, Iran has always played feint and miss in its military interventions. In the last three decades, Tehran It has been present, in one way or another, in most regional conflicts. However, it has generally acted through third parties. What is usually known as proxies, or intermediaries that allow you to fight against an adversary without directly committing yourself. This is what we see these days, with the mobilization of a plethora of militias financed and armed by the Iranian regime that are confronted in a subsidiary manner against the United States and Israel. With Israel’s invasion of Gaza, this strategy could be changing. The missiles launched directly by Iran, in recent days, against real or supposed enemies located in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan They could call into question the foundation of what has been until now the famous Axis of Resistance set up by the ayatollahs after the North American invasion of Iraq.
We do not know if this change is definitive, but if it is, the consequences would be major. That a country as important as Iran decided to support its anti-Western narrative with direct military involvement could end up igniting the vast region that runs from the Mediterranean to the border with India. Despite having suffered severe economic sanctions, Iran has almost one hundred million inhabitants, an army of 700,000 soldiers, oil resources and an exceptional geographical centrality that allows it to control decisive maritime passages for world trade and extensive borders. Hence the debate about how to respond to the increasing activity of their proxies. The Palestinian Shiite militias (Hamas and Islamic Jihad), Lebanese (Hizbollah), of the Yemeni Houthis (Ansar-Allah) or the Iraqi Shiites (Popular Movement Forces). The dilemma is between acting to contain actions that can destabilize the world economy, such as those of the Houthis in the Red Sea, without completely cutting off Iran’s ability to exercise a certain deterrent power in the region. Indeed, there is nothing more dangerous, for a country governed by a Council of Guardians of the Revolution with a harassed mentality, and with the possibility of having the nuclear bomb in four days, than leaving it without oxygen.
Although no one has been able to prove that Iran was behind the decision by Hamas and other terrorist groups to carry out the massacre of more than 1,200 Israelis on October 7, the destabilizing action of the pro-Iranian militias is an incontrovertible fact. Ending it requires defensive action to protect the interests of the international community in the Red Sea. However, he also urges to downplay the reasons why Tehran believes it can act as it pleases or that give it tools to present itself as a champion of all Islam, even if sometimes it is with pretexts, as is the case with the Palestinian cause. In this sense, it is necessary to intensify efforts to cfollow a ceasefire in Gaza and open a new stage in the Middle East – as the European Union is trying to do – that leads to the constitution of a Palestinian State that can live in peace and security alongside Israel.