The informative lock on a political negotiation It is usually a good recipe to increase the chances of success, but it has the drawback that, at the media level, it fuels all possible speculation about the approach, core and outcome of what is being talked about. Hence the contacts of ERC and Junts with the PSOE to illuminate the investiture of Pedro Sánchez They are stirring up political tension despite not knowing a bit of its content. Each week, if not each day, ends with a different sensation: at times it seems like you can see the white smoke on the horizon; At times there is pessimism that we will have to vote again with the Three Kings roscón in our stomach. But nothing tangible justifies either sensation.
From the amnesty to the ‘procés’ one assumes, intuits, deduces, senses, suspects, presumes, infers, foreshadows and fears absolutely everything without knowing, in reality, absolutely nothing. And since politics thrives on conjecture, we can begin to think that everyone is following a script to prepare the subsequent story of the repeat elections. The few surveys that have been published since July 23 suggest a scenario very similar to the current one, which means that none of the negotiators would be scalded if they returned to the polls. What if it is in everyone’s best interest to vote again? Let’s see
Feijóo would not arrive either
The path to the investiture debate on the 26th is becoming very long for the PP candidate. The act that has been pulled off by the hard wing of the party, and especially José María Aznarplaces him de facto in the role of head of the opposition when he has not even submitted to the congressional exam. In reality, the date that the popular are waiting for is November 27, when the deadline to invest a president expires, because they need a repeat election. Without it it is impossible for Feijóo to govern. That would be his only hope, but in the polls, at the moment, he continues to fall short.
According to the average of the post-election surveys, the PP would win five seats and obtain 142, but at the cost of taking them away from Vox, which would fall back to 29 without taking advantage of the new autonomous power that the Popular Party has given it. The sum of both would remain the same, 170 deputies. With this reality, the strategy of agitating the streets and delving into the discomfort of sectors of the PSOE over the alleged Sánchez concessions to the independentists. But for now that noise comes more from outside the walls than from within the party.
The socialists would play more with the electoral repetition. Despite his well-known resilient capacity, Sánchez now has a crack through which to retain the Moncloa, and new elections could cause him to lose it. After all, Feijóo is only missing four deputies for the absolute majority. The pardons for the prisoners of the ‘procés’ did not erode him last July and ‘sell’ that he has not given in to the claims of Carles Puigdemont with the amnesty and the referendum it could be a good bait to keep the right at bay. The average of polls right now gives the PSOE two more seats than 23-J, that is, 123.
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But they wouldn’t help him get rid of him either. Together because the current Government coalition would remain in the same register: the two deputies that the socialists would win would be lost by Sumar (29), despite the efforts of Yolanda Diaz for capitalizing on the dialogue with Puigdemont. The consolation for the vice president would be a possible ‘surprise’ to the extreme right. Recent experience says that repeating elections favors whoever governs, and Sánchez has tried both medicines: in 2019 she governed and continued to govern; In 2016 he was in the opposition and ended up overthrown by his party for not wanting to invest Mariano Rajoy.
Scrutinize the intentions of Puigdemont, who capitalizes on key to governance Despite having the same deputies as two other essential partners for Sánchez (the Comuns and ERC) and less than half as many as the PSC, it is a very complex exercise. What is clear is that his calculations will be significantly influenced by his chances of winning the game again against the Republicans. In July, Junts lost its particular duel with Esquerra by just 70,000 votesbut only two months before it had won the municipal elections by 160,000 ballots. For now the polls are more favorable for ERC, which would retain its 7 seats while JxCat would lose one and remain with 6 deputies. It is the first bill for that protagonism, so uncomfortable for socialists and republicans, that Puigdemont is exploiting in these hermetic negotiations.