Interests of anti-western trio diverge

From a western perspective, they are easily dismissed as three angry men. Vladimir Putin, instigator of a war in Europe. Ebrahim Raisi, president of a country where anti-Americanism is part of the national canon. And Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of important NATO member Turkey who likes to test the borders of the alliance, cherishes his feuds with the European Union, but also likes to act as a mediator. All three find democracy to a Western cut difficult.

On Tuesday they met in Tehran at the invitation of Raisi. Putin looked rushed on arrival. He was later than Erdogan, skipped the welcome ceremony to immediately consult with the host. On the agenda: Ukraine, the Russian blockade of Ukrainian wheat and Syria.

Formally, it was a summit in the context of the ‘Astana’ consultation in which the three have been coordinating their Syria policy since 2017. Astana was initially regarded as an alternative to the fruitless peace talks via the United Nations, on which the Western coalition had put its cards. The trio thus resembles an anti-Western alliance. For example, during a meeting with Putin on Tuesday, Ayatolla Ali Khamenei is said to have said that he should remain wary of deception by the West. But it is not a close-knit club, interests diverge too far for that.

Turkey, for example, sided with Kiev in Putin’s war. Turkish drones are of great value to the Ukrainian armed forces from the point of view of moral support alone. But Erdogan again does not support international sanctions against Russia, because they would do too much damage to the faltering Turkish economy.

Western Sanctions

For Putin, it is only the second foreign trip since the start of the war. It is an excellent opportunity for the Russian leader to strengthen ties with Iran. Russia can show that it is not alone in the world. And who knows, Putin may learn from Tehran how to deal with Western sanctions in the longer term. According to the US government, Iran is also about to deliver drones to Moscow.

It is also nice for Iran to show that it is not alone, especially after the budding of friendships between Israel and the Gulf States, which blossomed after American mediation. Russia, along with Venezuela and China, belongs to Iran’s small group of friends. Given US sanctions, it makes sense that Iran is looking for non-Western partners.

It is Putin’s second foreign trip since the start of the war

While Turkey is cooperating with Russia and Iran in the Astana talks, it faces the two countries in Syria. While Ankara supports the Syrian opposition, Moscow and Tehran support President Assad’s regime.

For Erdogan, the main agenda item in Tehran was his desire to launch a new military operation against the Kurdish group YPG in northern Syria. Because for that he needs permission from both Tehran and Moscow. The Turkish army has sent reinforcements to the strategically important YPG-held city of Tal Rifaat. But Russia has troops there and warns Turkey of new military adventures. Iran is also against a Turkish attack on Tal Rifaat, because there are two Shiite districts nearby that are important for Tehran.

Alleged conspiracy

The military threat is contributing to rising tensions between Turkey and Iran. Erdogan has postponed his visit to Tehran several times in the past year due to the increasing activities of the Iranian secret service on Turkish soil. In recent years, several prominent Iranian dissidents have been murdered and kidnapped in Turkey. And last month, Turkish authorities thwarted an alleged plot by Iranian intelligence to murder Israeli tourists. This was taken up highly by Ankara.

In addition to its strategic importance in Syria, it would also be a boost for Erdogan if Ukraine’s blocked grain stocks could be exported after Turkish mediation. Last week diplomats from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN reached an agreement in principle. The hope is that after a fruitful chat between Erdogan and Putin, a final agreement can be concluded by the end of this week. In Ukrainian silos are 22 million tons of grain that is holding back Russia, causing food shortages in Africa and Asia.

Putin said in Tehran that not all obstacles had been removed, but progress had been made. Erdogan lauded last week’s progress and said he hoped the whole world would benefit from a breakthrough.