After his two-day trip through the United States, where he held several meetings before his inauguration on December 10, the president-elect, Javier Milei gave several radio interviews in which, among other things, he confirmed that Luis Caputo He will be your Minister of Economy. “We present the characteristics of the challenges that lie ahead and the nature of the economic program that we are going to face,” the libertarian leader highlighted to the press.
Echoing the latest news and conjunctural analysis, economists Claudio Loser, Luis Secco and Daniel Marx They offered different views, on different portals, about the coming economy. Inflation, dollar and adjustmentwere the central axes of the questions, in the various media, that the consultants developed and tried to elucidate.
“The rosary that Javier Milei prays is incorrect, we must lower the fiscal deficit, stop the monetary issue, resolve the balance of the Central Bank, correct the problem of rates, solve the problem of stocks. What is not quite clear is how, and a bit of uncertainty is going to be generated until the president puts out the roadmap,” he declared. Luis Secco on El Disparador on FM DELTA 90.3.
For Secco, the moment of impact is being experienced at this precise moment. “Many are still wondering when this will explode, but it has already exploded. Most Argentines do not feel that we are in that disordered and crazy phase. We are still in a situation in which this final phase of acceleration can be avoided,” concluded the head of the consulting firm Perspectivas Económicas.
On the other hand, the former director of International Monetary Fund in the Western Hemisphere, Claudio Loser pointed out the importance of external debt in the national economic panorama. “In the IMF, Argentina is the main debtor, so there is a lot of concern. The negotiation has to continue to be able to meet the obligations and we have to see what plan can be reached,” highlighted the economist.
“After December 10, negotiations will begin and when we talk about next year, it is from January 2 or 7, when we would work on a new program. There is an agreement that says that the fund will give you money to restructure, and that expires at the end of 2024. I don’t think that will change,” Loser estimated in El Disparador and added: “We have to agree and make the disbursements looking the 2024 economic program, and then enter into a new agreement with fresh funds.”
Finally, the former IMF representative predicted: “There is going to be a significant inflationary blow because the official exchange rate is completely backwards. Javier Milei is clear that imports must be mobilized, that consumption subsidies must be eliminated, and that will have an impact on the price of gasoline. It would be a shock all at once. I wish I knew how long the bad experience was going to last, but I would say 6 months, it could be less.”
Concluding the triad of forecasts, Daniel Marx analyzed the immediate measures that the new government must take. “The sequence in terms of fiscal adjustment and exit from the stocks are going to be crucial. In the coming weeks they should work on simplifying the multiplicity of exchange rates. Milei himself is anticipating that there may be a hit of inflation at the beginning, even when there is a restrictive monetary policy. “This is going to happen due to a release of repressed prices,” warned Marx, former director of the BCRA during the presidency of Raúl Alfonsin.
“The Fund will try to receive details as soon as possible about the Milei program and with that make its evaluation. You have to see how much they ask for upfront and how much they allow you to do over time. It will not be easy to reach an agreement, the organization will first want to listen,” determined the current executive director of Quantum Finance.
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