Inequality is growing: depopulation of schools in province and region, especially teacher shortage in Randstad | inland

These developments emerge from an analysis of the estimates of future student numbers by the Education Executive Agency (DUO). In the coming decades, the differences will grow between shrinking regions with fewer (young) residents and urban areas in the west of the country where it is becoming increasingly crowded.

At the start of the new school year — the region in the center will be the first to act on Monday — the Netherlands will have 1.4 million children in (special) primary education. In twenty years this will be almost twenty percent more: more than 1.6 million. Secondary education is also set to grow, to more than 1 million pupils in 2042. This is partly because children spend more years at school: the number of havo graduates is growing faster than average, the number of pre-vocational secondary education students is rising slightly less rapidly.

The long-term DUO forecasts predict large regional differences. In Simpelveld, Limburg, for example, the number of primary school children has fallen by more than a quarter and on Vlieland even by almost half. The provinces of Groningen, Drenthe, Gelderland and Overijssel almost exclusively have shrinking municipalities. An outlier is, for example, the city of Enschede, where the number of students in 2042 is expected to be almost a fifth lower than now.

At the same time, DUO expects an increase in the number of students in Waddinxveen by almost two thirds. And that increase can be expected in more municipalities, especially in the Randstad, such as Westland (+20 percent) and Vijfheerenlanden (+18 percent).

This will lead to an even greater shortage of teachers. Last year there was already a shortage of almost 10,000 teachers in primary education. In secondary education, almost two-thirds of vacancies are difficult to fill. The Ministry of Education expects that the problems will be greatest in primary education in the Randstad conurbation, particularly in the four major cities and Almere. In secondary education there are shortages in specific subjects, such as physics and chemistry, (classical) languages ​​and computer science.

Precisely because of the large differences between regions, the ministry says it will focus on ‘strengthening regional cooperation’. “Collaboration between school boards, teacher training colleges and the professional group in the region is badly needed, because the size of the shortages and the context differ, individual school boards cannot solve this issue alone and the approach requires cooperation and solidarity,” it sounds.

Caspar van den Berg, professor of Public Administration in Groningen, studies the differences between shrinking regions and urban areas. He says: “The DUO forecasts primarily affect the education sector, but signal demographic shifts that have a much broader impact: aging and dejuvenation in the areas on the outskirts of the country have an impact on the entire social and economic ecosystem.”

According to Van der Berg, the changing composition of the population is, on the one hand, a cause for concern. “On the other hand, it is positive that we can see these developments coming from a relatively far distance. Now is the time to anticipate this, and to determine together what we want to do with these prospects. After all, it is about the quality of life and broad prosperity of the whole of the Netherlands, this is not a question of the Randstad against the rest.”

The Education Council stated last June that the teacher shortage is not only a problem for schools that are hit hardest by it. The advisory body also emphasized that this is the inequality in education cannot increase further. “Countering social inequality must therefore be taken into account in the choices for and elaboration of action options,” advised the Education Council for that reason.

While primary and secondary education will grow in the near future, MBO will shrink, particularly in areas outside the Randstad conurbation. According to the DUO forecast, secondary vocational education will have 6.4 percent fewer students in 2037 than now. According to Professor of Demographic Transition and the Labor Market Frank Cörvers, who is affiliated with Maastricht University, this means that the shortages in healthcare outside the Randstad are doubly noticeable.

“The shortage of practically trained people in certain areas may not be a problem if demand falls,” explains Cörvers. “The problem is that that demand is actually going to increase outside the Randstad. This is due to the increasing aging population. As a result, the demand for care is greater in regions outside the Randstad conurbation. This and the decreasing greening will ensure that the shortage of healthcare workers is even more noticeable in those areas outside the Randstad, and that is very worrying.”

If it is up to chairman Doekle Terpstra of Techniek Nederland, the call for more practically trained people outside the Randstad should be a cry for help. “If you want to have a central heating boiler replaced now, you will already be standing in a queue. If the number of practically trained people decreases, those queues will only get longer and longer. Healthcare and technology are the two sectors that must keep the Netherlands afloat. Without practically trained people, we will never achieve the energy transition goals, then the Netherlands will drown,” warns Terpstra.

“Ten years ago we had never heard of a solar panel installer. And so new professions are emerging with the energy transition. Batteries will have to be replaced in electric cars and bridges and tunnels will have to be maintained. These developments will not only affect consumers, but society as a whole.”