Incumbent President Macron is far from beating Le Pen

Marine Le Pen failed to win a major victory on Sunday, but the nationalist-populist right left a strong mark in the first round of the French presidential election. Le Pen (Rassemblement National) has won 23.3 percent of the vote, according to IFOP forecasts, and her kindred spirit Éric Zemmour of Réconquête! got 7.2 percent of the voters behind him. That means more than 30 percent of voters voted for a Nationalist-populist candidate: more than ever in France.

At first glance, the forecasts appear to be good news for incumbent President Emmanuel Macron (La République en Marche), who will face Le Pen in the second round on April 24. With 28.3 percent of the vote, he surpasses his score from five years ago (24.1 percent) and ends up a lot higher than predicted in recent days. Since mid-March, Le Pen has continued to climb and when polling agencies were legally silenced on Friday night, Macron and Le Pen were practically even.

But the president cannot be completely reassured. The fluctuating polls of recent weeks show that many French people are not convinced of their choice. The stay-at-home percentage was also 26.2 percent higher than ever during the first round of the presidential elections: a result of the widespread distrust of politicians and the political system in France. And it is very doubtful what the voters of the ten other candidates will do in the second round. Macron seemed very aware of his vulnerable position on Sunday evening. “We are not mistaken,” he said at his election event in Versailles, “the game is not yet over and the debate we will have over the next two weeks will be decisive.”

Also read: Five years of Macron: President des riches fought through crisis after crisis

Melenchon

For example, supporters of the radical left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third on Sunday with 21.2 percent of the vote, are very suspicious of Macron. They see the president, a former banker, as a representative of the ‘establishment’ and the capitalism they detest. Also, many in this electorate group abhor Macron’s ineffective climate policy and disagree with the president’s foreign policy. For example, Mélenchon is very critical of NATO and the EU, while Macron shows himself to be a supporter of these bodies.

Mélenchon, on the other hand, does have an ideological overlap with Le Pen: both oppose the establishment, are nationalistic and suspicious of globalization and say they stand up for the people. Some of Mélenchon’s voters will go for the RN foreman in the second round. Some of these voters will also stay at home in the second round, which would indirectly work in Le Pen’s favor. The only question is how big these groups are.

Mélenchon himself – just like five years ago – implicitly sided with Macron on Sunday evening. At a campaign event, he told his constituents “know your anger” but said they should give Le Pen “no vote at all” to prevent the RN frontwoman from making “irreparable mistakes”. The losing center-left and center-right candidates, the socialist Anne Hidalgo, the green Yannick Jadot and the right-wing conservative Valérie Pécresse, have also called on their voters to vote “against the far right” and thus for Macron. Zemmour, as expected, rallied behind Le Pen.

Also read: Marine Le Pen advances with radical right program under ‘cloak of everydayness’

Activating the stay at home

Over the next two weeks, Le Pen will focus on recruiting voters from Zemmour, Mélenchon and Republican Pécresse (who received 4.8 percent of the vote in the first round) and activating those who stay at home. On Sunday evening, at her election event in Paris, she called on “all who did not vote for Macron” to vote for her in the second round. The frontwoman of the Rassemblement National will respond to the feeling that she represents the voice of the ‘ordinary Frenchman’ and, unlike Macron, can blow a new wind in Paris.

Macron and his team are expected to go to great lengths to underline how far-reaching the consequences of President Le Pen† They started this already when Le Pen suddenly steamed up in the polls about two weeks ago. For example, Macron’s LREM party chairman Christophe Castaner called Le Pen “dangerous” and said a few days ago in a interview with Le Parisien that its ‘foundations’ have not changed despite its more moderate image. “It is a racist program that aims to cruelly divide society.” He also argued that her economic proposals, with which Le Pen has managed to seduce poorer voters, are practically unworkable.

The debate taking place on April 20 between Macron and Le Pen is likely to favor the former. In the same debate entre deux tours from five years ago, the articulate and well-researched Macron proved too strong for Le Pen. The question is, however, whether voters who voted for anti-establishment parties in the first round will be greatly influenced by such a political show.

Macron cannot yet sit back, as the first polls for the second round after the first ballot were published on Sunday evening. An IFOP poll placed Macron at 51 percent of the vote in the second round on April 24, compared to 49 percent for Le Pen. The battle is far from over.