In this uncertain situation, it is very important that France and Germany resolve their differences

French President Macron treated German Chancellor Scholz in icy fashion this week. Berlin had announced that a joint press conference would follow after Macron and Scholz’s lunch in Paris. No way, the French decided.

This diplomatic rebuke illustrates how deeply disturbed the relations between the main countries of the European Union are. The ‘Franco-German axis’, traditionally so important for progress in Europe, has fallen into disrepair. In the European arena, Scholz lacks the authority of his predecessor Merkel. He has let himself be pushed on the defensive by France and other, mainly southern, Member States.

Nevertheless, the disagreement between France and Germany should not be exaggerated. The European Union is an alliance of 27 sovereign states, each with its own interests and history. This includes quarrels, including between France and Germany, complete with heavy recriminations and leaked information to ‘check the narrative’. However, the current removal comes at a very bad time, in the midst of a war and an unprecedented energy crisis.

The removal is also a consequence of the war. The balance in Europe has been disturbed. Germany is uncertain because its successful export model was based in large part on cheap gas from Russia and trade with China. Russian gas is no longer flowing and relations with China are becoming increasingly problematic.

France is also uncertain. As a result of the war, the center of gravity in the EU is shifting to the East. Germany is in the center and looks more and more to the East, so that France fears that it will become less relevant on the western periphery. The Franco-German axis itself has also lost its authority. Before the war, Germany held on to Russian gas for a long time, while France continued to seek dialogue with Putin. After the Russian invasion, it was the Americans who resolutely took the lead, not the French and Germans. The Baltic countries and Poland therefore prefer to look at Washington than at Berlin or Paris. For example, many old and new fault lines run through the EU.

In this uncertain situation, it is very important that France and Germany settle their differences. There is no alternative to the Franco-German axis. There will be no center of power in the East. The Baltic countries are small and Poland has been discredited for its lack of respect for the rule of law.

So far, the European Union has managed to maintain its unity vis-à-vis Russia. But Europe is facing a difficult winter. Ukraine must be supported with weapons and large sums, while the European economies are in danger of falling into recession. By attacking the Ukrainian infrastructure, Russian President Putin is trying to start a refugee influx, with the aim of destabilizing Europe. If Putin is divisive, Europe must keep its ranks closed. This is only possible if the main countries of the EU are on the same page. The disputes over energy and defense are less important than the existential goal: the defense of democracy against the aggression of authoritarian Russia.