On April 24, Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential election. In doing so, he managed to become the first French president in twenty years to be re-elected at the Élysée Palace. Yet Macron’s victory was less beautiful than you might think at first glance. The gap between Macron and his far-right rival Marine Le Pen had narrowed significantly in five years. Moreover, many more disaffected Frenchmen stayed away from the polls.
Researchers calculated that in the end only 38.5 percent of all 48 million eligible French voters had voted for Macron. So a minority. It tempted far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon to call Macron the “weakest elected” French president since Georges Pompidou in 1969.
Eight weeks later, Macron’s position does not appear to have improved. He has lost his majority in parliament. His party coalition Ensemble reached 245 seats, a long way from the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority in the French parliament. Macron will therefore have to take other parties into account in the coming years in order to be able to realize his domestic policy.
What does this election result mean for the effectiveness of the president and the stability of France?
Rudi Wester studied French language and literature, was a critic of French literature for many years and director of the Institut Néerlandais in Paris:
Emmanuel Macron must have slept very badly on Sunday night. reasons? The historically low voter turnout for a new parliament (46 percent) signifies great distrust in politics. In addition, he is his absolute majority in the National Assembly so that he can no longer rule as a Jupiter alone.
To make matters worse, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left Nupes coalition and Marine Le Pen’s far-right party have made significant gains in parliament. Both are in favor of leaving NATO and the European Union, which is exactly what the internationally operating Macron does not want. A number of newly appointed ministers have also been voted out, forcing Macron to do a major clean-up in the government.
In short, disorder and chaos will increase on the streets as well as in parliament. It will remain restless for a long time to come in my dearly beloved France.’
Niek Pas is assistant professor of French contemporary history at the University of Amsterdam and wrote about Macron and the new French revolution:
“With the loss of Macron’s absolute majority in parliament, France will jerk to the right. Mélenchon’s cardboard left-wing coalition has made too little territorial gains. With so many losers, there is only one (surprising) winner: Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. The appointment of dozens of new radical left and far right parliamentarians is only an optical democratic gain.
‘The term ‘compromise’ does not exist in the dictionary of French political culture. However, the government will have to compromise. Parliamentary majorities are only possible through the center right (Les Républicains). Republican support comes with a hefty political price tag.
‘Other solutions are conceivable. Macron can rule by decree: the illustrious French article 49.3. From a policy point of view, this nuclear option is highly effective, but politically undesirable. It is more likely that the president will let things get bogged down and then call new parliamentary elections in roughly one or two years’ time.’
Laurent Chambon is a French political scientist who studies minorities in politics in the Netherlands and France:
Emmanuel Macron is the most hated of all French presidents, but the French electoral system just falls short of a majority of the seats in the French parliament. National Assembly Worried.
He was elected for the second time two months ago. Also en masse by the left-wing voters, who had mobilized against Marine Le Pen as a so-called barrage republicain (republican dam). But in these parliamentary elections, the macronists in districts where three candidates scored above 20 percent in the first ballot and thus qualified for the second round, chose to stay in the race. Knowing that they would ensure a major victory for the far right. Le Pen has indeed won 89 seats, 11 times more than what she won in the parliamentary elections of 2017.
Anthropologist Emmanuel Todd, who can be brutal at times, has said that the lower classes clearly had to choose between their class interests (their retirement and the future of their children) and their hatred of the Arabs. So many French people hate the Arabs more than they love their children.
‘With La Republique En Marche! (Macron, right), Les Républicains (very right) and Rassemblement National (Le Pen, far right) there is now a huge majority that is very active against the middle and low classes and will fight against the migrants and the environment. It is very bad news for France, for Europe and for the world.’
Frederik Dhondt is senior lecturer in legal history at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel and an expert on France:
“This election result is a great disappointment to the president. Macron’s La Republique En Marche! is definitely not doing well: at first it looked like the game would be halved. Coalition partners MoDem and Horizons will certainly demand a bigger slice of the pie. Not to mention the negotiations with the centre-right Les Républicains and any left-wing dissidents.
‘There is a gap of 40 to 50 seats for a majority in parliament. Of course Macron can de Assembly ingouvernable send them back home if no agreement is reached, but that is a big risk. Voters know that the president will be gone by 2027 anyway. In a few weeks time we have switched from one era to the next while sleeping.’