“In 24 hours, the wind speed has doubled to 270 km/h”: Hurricane Lee is rapidly becoming one of the most powerful ever | Science & Planet

On September 5, a tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean was named “Lee” by the National Hurricane Center. This officially makes it the 12th storm of the Atlantic hurricane season that runs from June to November. On September 6, the tropical cyclone gained enough strength to be called a hurricane. Lee then rapidly intensified into the warm waters of the ocean. In just a day, the hurricane grew into a category 5, the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This makes it one of the fastest-gaining hurricanes in history.

The Saffir-Simpson Scale classifies tropical cyclones into five categories based on their maximum wind speeds, storm surge heights and potential damage. Category 1 hurricanes have wind speeds of 119 to 153 km/h, while Category 5 hurricanes have wind speeds of 252 km/h or higher. Less than 1% of all tropical cyclones reach Category 5 strength. The last Category 5 hurricane was Ian in 2022.

_{Read more below the image.}

Currently, Hurricane Lee has a sustained wind speed of 170 mph. Further reinforcement seems likely because Lee is in an environment with little shear and very warm water of about 30°C. The hurricane is expected to strengthen further and reach a wind speed of 290 km/h (or more).

The tropical cyclone may therefore have a shot at the title of most powerful hurricane ever in the Atlantic Ocean. Usually one looks at the wind speed or the central pressure (the lower the pressure, the more powerful the hurricane). In terms of wind speeds, Hurricane Allen from 1980 leads with 310 km/h. If we look at the central pressure, Hurricane Wilma from 2005 is in the lead with 882 mbar (Wilma reached ‘only’ 298 km/h in terms of wind speed). Currently that for Lee is 926 mbar. It remains to be seen where exactly Hurricane Lee will end up. The hurricane will certainly remain a category 4 or 5 for the next 5 days.

Currently, Lee is the furthest southeast ever observed as a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean since records began 172 years ago. A steady west-northwesterly track is expected north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Wednesday. Lee will not make landfall (for now), but the waves, precipitation and winds caused by the storm could certainly affect surrounding areas.

_{Read more below the image.}

Computer models indicate that Lee will likely make a turn north next week. It is especially important when this will take place as this determines how close the dangerous hurricane will approach the American coast. How quickly Lee will deflect depends on how quickly an area of ​​high pressure north of the hurricane will weaken. If the high pressure area holds, the hurricane could approach the east coast of the United States.

In the 1970s and 1980s, major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) averaged about 30 to 33% of all Atlantic hurricanes. This increased to an average of 40 to 50% per year in the 2000s and 2010s. This means that there were an average of 1.6 major hurricanes per year in the 1970s and 1980s, and that this has increased to 3 today to 4 per year.

Climate change has been suggested as a reason why stronger hurricanes occur. The effect of climate change on the frequency of tropical storms is still unclear, but rising sea surface temperatures are warming the air above and making more energy available to power hurricanes.

What is a Hurricane? Why are they given names? And does climate change have an impact on them? 5 questions answered (+)

Tropical Storm Margot will quickly become a hurricane

What are the 5 strongest hurricanes ever? Climatologist compares the number of deaths and damages (+)