Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Italy are particularly affected by the gas shutdown. Their economies will then be hit by a maximum of 5.5 to 6.5 percent. Germany, which is also heavily dependent on Russian gas, would face an economic contraction of just under 3 percent.
Sharing gas supplies and turning to the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market can mitigate the impact of a hard cut in Russia’s gas supply. In that scenario, gas ends up where it is most needed and the burden in the form of less available energy is shared by the EU Member States.
If the EU countries do that, the Hungarian economy will shrink by a maximum of about 3.5 percent and the Italian economy just over 1 percent. Romania would even experience growth instead of an economic contraction. Other countries, including Belgium, are on the decline when stocks are shared.
The IMF warns that there are many uncertainties. The actual situation can therefore deviate considerably from the calculations.