‘If the Russians really want to take Kiev, it will be a terrible war’

Of course, you’ve often asked yourself this question: is Putin really going to invade Ukraine?

‘That is a very difficult question. It is very difficult to predict. The situation has become more dangerous lately. On Monday, the Kremlin accused Kiev of rallying troops along the frontline in eastern Ukraine, where small-scale fighting with pro-Russian separatists continues. This is very similar to a scenario where the Russians create an incident in the area and use that as an argument to invade Ukraine.

Putin has previously used alarming words about the situation in Ukraine. He accused the Ukrainians of genocide against the ethnic Russians in the east. That is not justified at all. The separatists themselves declared independence in 2014 in areas they had overrun in the east. Now the economy is bad and they complain that the population cannot get their pension. But that is the consequence if you decide to separate.

“These kinds of accusations from the Kremlin are alarming. Putin’s spokesman also said the likelihood of a conflict is increasing. He referred to the troops NATO decided on Monday to send to member states in Eastern Europe to improve their security. But these are small numbers. The 8,500 military personnel the US has put on high alert are also not going to Ukraine and are not intended to fight against Russia. NATO units are going to the Baltic states and Poland, among others, countries that now feel threatened because they were once occupied by the Soviet Union themselves.’

Is Putin bluffing? Has he never intended to burn his fingers at an invasion from the start and has this force only been used to pressure the West and Kiev?

‘That is possible. But unlikely. So what has he achieved now? I don’t see how he can make a profit out of this if he doesn’t use force. He wants NATO to withdraw the military from the member states in Eastern Europe and to guarantee that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO in the long run. But this is out of the question for the US and NATO. That withdrawal is not going to happen. And anyone is free to apply for alliance membership, including Ukraine. Russia has recognized this in several treaties.

But Russia can be sure that NATO will not include Ukraine. Because if Ukraine joins, NATO could also get involved in a conflict between Kiev and Moscow over Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014. Nobody at NATO wants that. With the invasion of Crimea, Moscow effectively prevented Ukraine’s NATO membership. Russia knows that very well.

“If Putin now suddenly pulls out without any commitment from the West, he has been defeated. That’s what makes the situation so dangerous. You wonder what the hell he wants to achieve. The military advantage Moscow gains from invading Ukraine does not outweigh the enormous negative consequences for Russia. There will be severe sanctions, relations with the West will be ruined for a long time and Moscow will make few friends in the rest of the world either.’

But do you still see a political outcome?

“All the West can offer Putin is talks on arms control. Various treaties in this area, including those relating to the limitation of medium-range nuclear weapons, have been denounced. The talks have been on hold for years. But this commitment will not solve the Ukraine issue.’

Russia could opt for a limited military operation rather than an invasion. Partly to save face. You have been to eastern Ukraine yourself. How do you view that?

‘That could give them some advantage. It is then likely that they will enter and annex the rebel republics. The people there are very pro-Russian, they even got Russian passports. The Russians may also occupy a corridor along the coast of Ukraine, near Crimea. Ukraine would then lose some ports and even lose access to the Black Sea. However, this could lead to years of guerrilla war, because the Ukrainians are not going to take it.

‘The alternative is a large-scale invasion for which the Russians would have to deploy a colossal force. Kiev must then be taken and the west of the country. Western Ukraine is very nationalistic. Here too, they have to reckon with a bloody guerrilla war, in which nationalist militias will certainly make themselves felt. These militias also played an important role in the fighting against the separatists in 2014 and beyond. Maybe even a bigger role than the Ukrainian army for a while.’

You also hear constantly that the Russians in a kind of blitzkrieg want to advance quickly to Kiev to install a pro-Russian government. Is that feasible?

“That’s going to be very difficult. The mood in Ukraine is now very anti-Russian. Ten to fifteen years ago it was different. Until 2014, pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was in power. Pro-Russian groups are still active, but their influence has diminished. You now hear that the Russians would like to help former parliamentarian Yevgeny Murayev in the saddle. But I’ve never heard of him having much influence in the country. In any case, it seems to me impossible to bring him to power without invading Ukraine.

“In addition, if they only want to take Kiev with a kind of lightning war, the Russians will become very vulnerable. Because then they can easily be attacked by Ukrainian army units from the rest of the country. Either way, it’s going to be a terrible war if the Russians really want to take Kiev. Then they have to use a lot of force. The result will also be that the neighboring countries that are members of NATO will become afraid and will arm themselves even more. Then Putin has achieved the opposite of what he wanted.’

If bluffing was not his intent, then there is only one conclusion: Putin wants to invade Ukraine anyway.

‘Maybe that was indeed his intention from the start. NATO isn’t going to raise the white flag right away because it has gathered such a large force along the border, is it? If Putin thought so, then he has grossly overestimated his chances. In any case, Russia wants to go back to the situation during the Soviet Union, when there was a buffer in Europe between the West and Moscow. They try to restore that buffer. But the countries in Eastern Europe do not want that at all. They lived through the Soviet occupation and now want NATO to remain active in the region.”