How was the attack on the Ukrainian army base Javoriv carried out?

The Russian attack on the military center in Javoriv early Sunday morning was one of the deadliest to date. It was also one of the westernmost, 25 kilometers from the border. Why did the Russians choose this goal? Five questions.

1 Why did Russia attack Javoriv?

The Javoriv complex, 25 kilometers from the Polish border, is both a symbolically and militarily important target. It includes a training ground where Western units have trained with Ukrainian in military operations. From artillery exercises to UN-flagged foreign peacekeeping missions in which Ukraine has participated, including in a number of African countries and in Kosovo. For Russia, therefore, it is synonymous with Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO.

Western instructors there have also taught Ukrainians how to handle Western anti-tank weapons, including the American Javelin, which has taken out large numbers of Russian tanks and other vehicles in recent weeks. NATO says there were no own personnel in Javoriv.

2 What weapons has Javoriv been hit?

By at least eight cruise missiles (‘cruise flight weapons’). A cruise missile is not a missile, but de facto an unmanned jet aircraft with a charge of explosives (or a warhead). Unlike a ballistic missile, it flies at a low altitude and relatively low speed towards its target, guided by GPS. Russian cruise missiles have a range of more than 3,000 kilometers and their accuracy is considered high, with a hit probability within ten meters of their target. Precision weapons are expensive (comparable western weapons cost $2 million each) and are used only against important targets. The stock is also not inexhaustible.

Russia has different types, which can be launched from the ground, from submarines and other naval vessels, and by aircraft. Since the beginning of the war, Russia has fired cruise missiles from land and sea at Ukrainian targets. The attack on Javoriv early Sunday morning was believed to have been carried out with air-launched cruise missiles, said two Pentagon officials, quoted by The New York Times† They did not provide further details about the attack, which left at least 35 dead and 134 injured, Kiev said. Russia said that “up to 180 foreign mercenaries” had been killed, referring to the newly created Ukrainian ‘foreign legion’.

3 How was the attack on Javoriv carried out?

The cruise missiles were believed to have been launched by Tupolev Tu-95 (NATO reporting name ‘Bear’) or Tu-160 (‘Blackjack’) bombers. These aircraft are based near the Russian city of Saratov, 500 kilometers east of Ukraine and 1,300 kilometers from Javoriv. They probably fired their missiles while they were still flying in Russian airspace. In Ukrainian airspace, they would have been vulnerable to the still effective Ukrainian air defenses.

4 Could NATO see the missile attack coming?

Both Tu bombers date from the Cold War and have no so-called stealthproperties, which would make them less visible to radar. But that matters little, since they were almost certainly still flying in Russian airspace during launch, and thus out of the radar range of NATO planes that fly almost permanently along the Polish-Ukrainian border and disrupt Russian military activities on the ground and in follow the air (and provide the Ukrainian armed forces with information about it). Western satellites may have detected the planes.

5 Could Ukraine have prevented the attack?

One Blackjack can launch up to twelve cruise missiles, from a rotating drum in the fuselage. The missiles themselves are notoriously difficult to detect and intercept due to their low altitude and sometimes erratic flight path. That applies even more to stealth cruise missiles such as the Kh-101one of the types available to Russia.

The Ukrainian governor of Lviv, Maksim Kozitskyj, said on Sunday that Russia had fired 30 and that air defenses “most [ervan heeft] knocked down,” as eight broke through the defence. Whether that is true is doubtful. Some of the Ukrainian antiaircraft systems, both larger missile systems and portable antiaircraft missiles such as the Stinger, are especially effective against (higher flying) aircraft and helicopters.

Some systems, such as the S-300PS, have, according to the authoritative Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) about “some” capability against cruise missiles† Ukraine’s armed forces said they did shoot down two cruise missiles last week. But how many of those systems are still in operation (and where) is unknown. And certainly when cruise missiles are fired in a swarm, such as towards Javoriv, ​​the air defenses can easily become ‘saturated’.

Also read: Russia is getting closer to NATO territory