“The responsibility is, in all cases, to seek an orderly transition that can be made. We are not going to devalue because he wins Milei, or whatever. No, we have already established a strategy that basically has to do with continuing with the dollar at 350 until November 15 and then crawling peg of 3%, which I would say, as a general line, as a recommendation to whoever, I would say let’s not leave there until we get dollars to do something else. If you don’t have dollars, everything you do, any devaluation you do, anything else you do, you have high risks,” he explained. Gabriel Rubinstein the right hand of Sergio Massain an interview with Jorge Fontevecchia.
He vice minister of economy It was forceful in the numbers and to a certain extent anticipated the government’s estimates, regarding the price of the official dollar, once the planned national elections were over and the results of the contest were known. “That’s the idea. “If you tell me that Milei won and wants to do something else, and it is the new government and it is surely a negotiation to see what is done and what is not done when he has already won and there are two months left, one month, whatever,” he stressed. Rubenstein a few days ago in “Pure Journalism”.
However, the free dollar reached a nominal maximum of 1,050 pesos this Tuesday. The Economist Bruno Panighelbelonging Head of Research at Parakeet Capital, warned in various media that “in real terms – discounting local and international inflation – today’s dollar is not the most expensive”, as it is below the real value of “$195 of the October 2020 bullfight”, which “ today it is equivalent to 1,110 pesos.” On the other hand, the economist Carlos Rodriguez He pointed out a “door 12 effect from the moment participants try to leave pesos to make their profits in dollars.” The advisor of Javier Milei pointed against the Liquidity Letters (Leliq)the doubtful securities issued by the Central Bank, as the cause of the exchange rate jump and the financial imbalance of recent months.
Salvador Di Stefano, in a note on the Perfil.com portal in mid-September, predicted: “First of all, that there is no electoral definition on October 22. The future dollar of the October position is worth $399.50 and the expiration amounts to US$876 million. It is a low value if compared to the value of $350 of the dollar today. If the market were to price in a winner in October, this position would be worth more than $450, and volume would exceed $1.5 billion.”
“Secondly, the November future dollar is worth $479, This implies that the market is pricing in a winner, For December it is listed at $615, and January $698. The largest increase in percentage terms occurs between December and November with a gap of 28.4%. Whoever wins, there is an exchange rate adjustment. The market says so,” determined the company and business advisor.
Finally, Di Stefano was correct in his prediction made on September 14 on the Grupo Perfil portal. “Thirdly, the stock and bond markets are on a downward path, this is very good, because we are 38 days away from the elections on October 22, and it seems to us that the market is crouching down to carry out an important bullish rally. , in terms of the electoral definition,” the economist noted and concluded: “The key dates will be between October 1 and 8 when the presidential debates take place. Here you will begin to notice if someone can win in the first round, or who is shaping up for the second round.”
by RN
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