How long can Johnson stay on without the support of his ministers?

Boris Johnson is by no means a standard politician who neatly follows the rules. But his determination to stay on as prime minister — without the support of a significant proportion of his ministers — was extraordinary on Wednesday. Because how long can a prime minister survive without a cabinet?

The Conservative Party experienced a bizarre day on Wednesday, with ministers resigning en masse and withdrawing their trust in Johnson. Resignation letters came in all day long. TV channel Sky News even kept track of the number on screen, as if it were the score of a football match. There were 42 in the evening, about a third of all 120 ministers and supporting secretaries from the cabinet.

Finally, a group of senior cabinet members tried to tell Boris Johnson that he should keep the credit to himself. Earlier in the day, Housing Secretary Michael Gove, a close confidant of the prime minister and like him a fanatic Brexiteer, had also tried to make it clear to Johnson that his time had come. Afterwards, he was fired by the prime minister by telephone.

But Wednesday night when NRC went to the printer, it was still unclear how that meeting of the club of ministers and Prime Minister Johnson would turn out. British media reported however, that Johnson was determined to stay on. He is said to have referred to his big election win of 2019, in which the Conservative Party won a majority of 80 seats thanks to him. He sees that as his personal mandate from the British people. Johnson also said according to the BBC that it would be ‘irresponsible’ to step down now, with a war in Ukraine and an looming economic recession in the UK.

It was no longer possible to maintain the balance between loyalty and integrity

Sajid Javid ex-minister of health

Two ministers initiated the collapse of the cabinet on Tuesday evening. Rishi Sunak (Finance) and Sajid Javid (Health) quit their jobs. This was prompted by Johnson’s untruths about the transgressive behavior of Chris Pincher, a Conservative Member of Parliament who has been repeatedly accused of assault. Johnson knew about this and appointed him to his cabinet anyway. The prime minister denied having been aware of this, but was later forced to admit that he was.

Also read: Six scandals that weakened Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s position

Such twists and the retrospective excuse of previous falsehoods have slowly but surely eroded Conservative Party support for Johnson. ‘Partygate’, the scandal surrounding the parties in Downing Street during the corona lockdowns, was a particularly striking example of this. Johnson kept insisting that nothing had happened. It emerged that civil servants and political assistants had regular get-togethers, with excessive drinking. The prime minister was even fined for violating the rules.

Running out of patience

With the Conservative Party suffering these scandals for months, losing the last by-elections and the opposition Labor party leading in the polls, the party’s patience is suddenly running out. Ministers have barely managed to implement their policies in three years, partly because of the corona crisis, but also partly because they are constantly distracted by scandals about Johnson. And what did happen is controversial within the party and society: the deportations of asylum seekers to Rwanda, the return to agreements with the EU that Johnson himself has made.

The Prime Minister has therefore brought this uprising mainly on himself, is the general view among the Conservatives. Ministers were tired of standing up for him and “defending the indefensible,” ex-minister Sajid Javid said on Wednesday. “It has been impossible in recent months to maintain the balance between loyalty and integrity.” The credibility of ministers and the wider Conservative Party is being damaged.

Ideal opponent

For the opposition Labor party, Johnson’s resignation would mean the loss of an ideal opponent, though she will never admit it. Johnson has been a damaged party leader against whom it is easy to score in recent months. Labor leader Keir Starmer may be ahead in the polls, but that has been attributed to Johnson’s plight rather than the alternative he offers to a Conservative government.

Critics within the Conservatives are now determined to end Johnson’s leadership. On Wednesday, it looked for a while that the party’s special committee dealing with confidence votes would make such a vote on his position possible as soon as possible. At the beginning of last month, Johnson won another vote of confidence from the group, although a sizable minority (41 percent) then gave up their confidence in him. The rule is that such a vote can only be held again after a year.

Johnson mainly brought this uprising on himself, according to his party members

But the committee that oversees these kinds of rules will be reconstituted on Monday and has decided to wait with a decision to possibly change the rules. Opponents of Johnson would now run for election to that committee, in order to quickly organize a new vote. The chances are very slim that Johnson would win such a vote again, but he would be happy to take the fight.

Motion of distrust

Another option would be to have the entire House of Commons vote on a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister. That motion would then be tabled by Labor, although that is not usual because it concerns Johnson’s position as party leader, which is seen as a party matter. “But entire ministries, such as Education, are now without political leadership. The Prime Minister is clinging to power and in doing so is damaging the governance of our country,” said Steve Reed, Labor shadow justice minister. The opposition would be open to negotiating such a motion.

Also read: A troubled new phase begins for Prime Minister Johnson

Johnson received support from a few loyal ministers on Wednesday evening. Nadine Dorries (Education) and Jacob Rees-Mogg (Brexit Opportunities) would have remained on his side. But whether there are still enough MPs available and willing to fill all the gaps that fell on Wednesday is completely unclear. Johnson is said to have already announced a speech early next week with new plans to help the economic situation in the UK move forward.

One of the prime minister’s critics recently summed up his image of Johnson to the BBC: “He always wanted to be prime minister and even more he wanted to go down in history as prime minister. What had to happen in the meantime was less clear.” But Johnson is apparently not ready for history to begin.