For Israel, the invasion of Gaza will be a matter of do or die. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this in a speech to the soldiers on Sunday. His words made it clear once again that the army will enter the Gaza Strip. According to the government, there is no other option.
Many thought that the army would march in much sooner, but the military experts who warned that the Israeli army leadership would not rush in overnight were proven right. The risks of a ground offensive are so great that good preparation is crucial, especially if some of the soldiers are reservists.
It was logical that Israel would first want to carry out air strikes to weaken Hamas. The population also had to move to the south of Gaza as much as possible. The bombings still continue in full force. Israel is trying to eliminate Hamas hideouts and ammunition depots. The extensive tunnel system – Gaza’s ‘metro’ – in which the military leaders are hiding and directing an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 fighters, is also a target. Some Hamas commanders have already been eliminated, but the military structure remains intact. The tunnels are also difficult to destroy from the air. Being for that boots on the ground necessary.
New line-up?
The air raids will undoubtedly continue once the invasion has begun. The fact that many Palestinian civilians are killed is seen by Israel as ‘collateral damage’. According to Palestinian authorities, 5,791 people have been killed and more than 15,000 injured. Moreover, the death toll will only rise if Israeli soldiers become involved in house-to-house fighting. Israel also risks paying a high price. The question is how many body bags the government and society are willing to accept.
That will depend, among other things, on the purpose of the invasion. Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and the army chief of staff have said that Hamas must be eliminated militarily and no longer allowed to govern Gaza. That is a very ambitious goal. How long will it take to eliminate 15,000 fighters? It seems almost impossible that they will voluntarily surrender at some point. It is more likely that tens of thousands of Gazans who are members of Hamas’s civilian wing – their numbers are estimated at 80,000 to 90,000 – will also take up arms.
Eradicating ideology is impossible in any case. If the Israeli army occupies Gaza – even temporarily – it will become a target for suicide attacks. US President Joe Biden has already said that he does not think a new occupation is a good idea. For the time being, Israel has Washington’s support, but if the war drags on or gets completely out of hand, that support could erode.
Aware of the dangers
The Israeli generals are well aware of the dangers of a ground war. “The attack will be extremely difficult, long and intense,” said Yaron Finkelman, the commander of the southern army. The generals also know that a war can never be perfectly prepared, and an urban war in particular is unpredictable. “The fighting is taking place at a much shorter distance,” writes Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general. According to him, it will be crucial that infantry soldiers on foot work intensively together with their colleagues in armored vehicles or armed bulldozers. “Only intensive cooperation ensures that the ground troops can survive.”
It is also expected that the main target will be Gaza City. Many residents have left the city, but the Israeli army will want to completely surround it so that no one can get in or out. The Israeli soldiers can then carefully begin to scan where the enemy is hiding. But that also makes them targets.
The big question is whether many Hamas fighters have already left Gaza City and are hiding in the south. In any case, it fits in with their tactics to use the civilian population as human shields. If that becomes their tactic, the Israeli army will also quickly invade the southern part of Gaza. The consequences for the civilian population then become incalculable. But the ultimate nightmare scenario is also looming for Israel. How can they conduct such an urban war in a controlled manner, let alone ever win it?