Housing shortage bigger with new calculation method: ‘100 houses for 105 households’

By our editor Titia Ketelaar

Based on a new calculation method by Atlas Research, the housing shortage in the Netherlands would be even greater than has been estimated until now. The researchers, who held the annual Atlas for municipalities publications comparing the fifty largest municipalities conclude that for every 100 homes, 105 households are in line.

That would equate to a shortage of 390,000 homes, more than 110,000 more than the housing shortage that the Ministry of the Interior maintains. That is 279,000 homes, which amounts to 3.5 percent of the housing stock.

The housing shortage is usually calculated on the basis of the ratio between the number of households and the number of homes, and indicators that indicate that someone is looking for a home. Atlas Research took into account, among other things, the housing requirements of private individuals who already have their own house, who are not counted as house seekers in other calculation methods.

“This concerns, for example, households in regular homes that would like to continue as two households, for example because of a divorce. Not including these housing requirements leads to an underestimation of both the housing demand and the housing shortage,” the researchers write.

Moving deficit

The agency looked at housing pressure: the ratio between latent demand and available stock. If everyone could fulfill their housing needs, i.e. could live in the type of house and in the municipality of their choice, the housing pressure would be 100.

With about 150 housing pressures are highest in Amsterdam, Amstelveen and Leidschendam-Voorburg, and lowest in Lelystad, Nissewaard and Emmen, where 60 households are queuing for every 100 homes.

Incidentally, the housing shortage is a changing number, which is under discussion among statisticians. During the corona crisis, the deficit decreased, partly because expats left and a relatively large number of people died. Now it is rising again due to the arrival of Ukrainian refugees to the Netherlands.

Also read: Are a million homes needed? It can also be less, or more

Atlas Research did not take into account shortages – in terms of affordable housing – because, in their view, it is not only related to scarcity in the market, but also to financial and tax incentives.

Atlas Research looked at the housing pressure per municipality, per postcode level, and per age category. For example, it appears that the housing pressure in Leiden and Delft, for example, is high when it comes to single-family homes, but low for apartments.

Construction plans

The researchers also looked at the concrete building plans of the various municipalities, which amount to the construction of 398,000 new homes. Of the fifty largest municipalities, only Emmen and Sittard-Geleen have no concrete plans to reduce housing pressure. Municipalities such as Leidschendam-Voorburg, Amersfoort, Hilversum and Amstelveen have insufficient plans, as does one of the ‘closers’ of the residential pressure index, Amsterdam. There are ‘soft’ building plans there, but they still depend on objection procedures, nitrogen quotas or other reasons why they cannot go ahead.

Conversely, Atlas Research also sees municipalities with a construction surplus. This is happening in Almere, Lelystad and Helmond. “If we include the ‘soft’ building plans, Lelystad even wants to more than double (130 percent). If no major investments are made in the near future in the quality of life and accessibility of such municipalities, it may be possible to build for future vacancy.”

A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of June 22, 2022