News item | 12-07-2023 | 08:27
The housing shortage will increase this year from 3.9% to 4.8%. This is evident from ABF Research’s Primos forecast 2023, which was also sent to the House of Representatives today. The Primos forecast shows that as of January 1, 2031, the number of households is expected to increase by 110,000 more than expected in the previous forecast. More than half of this higher growth is due to additional population growth, which in turn is entirely caused by migration. In addition, the so-called household dilution and the elderly who live at home longer play a role. The prognosis is that a total of 981,000 homes will be needed up to and including 2030. That is 45,000 more than agreed in the regional Housing Deals and 81,000 more than in the Housing Construction programme. More than 90,000 homes will have been added in 2022, more than assumed in the Residential Building programme.
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The Minister for Housing and Spatial Planning emphasizes that we cannot afford to stand still in the field of housing: “With the rise in interest rates in the past year, the headwind – which was already strong in many areas – has increased. And the new figures show that the task – which was already considerable – is even greater. This is not unexpected, but it does underline the need to ensure that the number of new homes rises faster than the number of new people. We will have to make up for the housing shortage. And so we have to build more affordable houses with more speed and more direction.”
More housing is needed, mainly due to migration
The fact that more homes are needed than initially predicted is largely (55%) due to higher expected population growth. This extra expected population growth is entirely caused by migration. In addition to status holders, labor migrants and foreign students also need a home. In the letter to the House of Representatives about the Pouw-Verwey motion and in response to the commitment to member Klaver, the minister writes that he looks at the living situation of migrants from the perspective of the various migration motives.
In addition, 20% of the higher expected growth in the number of households is due to the fact that ABF expects the decrease in the number of people per home (household thinning) to be faster than previously assumed. Finally, the additional 25% growth can be explained by the fact that ABF now takes into account a large number of elderly people who will continue to live at home longer than assumed in the previous forecast.
The Primos forecast now amounts to 840,000 households as of January 1, 2031, compared to 730,000 households last year.
Higher expected production than last year
ABF Research expects an additional 834,000 homes to be built between 2022 and 2030. That is more than ABF expected last year, while ABF now assumes a dip in production over the next two years. This dip is therefore more than compensated for in subsequent years. ABF mentions favorable policy conditions, such as certainty about the government contribution to the necessary infrastructure and the administrative agreements about housing construction ambitions. In addition, ABF Research also observes an increase in the – especially hard – planning capacity.
There is a great deal of support for continuing as far as possible with the actions that have been initiated in the Housing Construction Programme, as is evident, for example, from the letter of 10 July from administrative umbrella organizations to the Senate and House of Representatives. In this letter, the VNG, IPO and the Union of Water Boards ask the outgoing cabinet to take decisive action in the construction of sufficient, affordable homes, as well as with a number of other important social challenges.