After an unfortunate TV performance on Monday, in which Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) was broadcast live on TV seemed to be ambushed due to the rapid developments in Ukraine, he had something to make up for. And so on Tuesday he spoke in firm terms about the Russian aggression. During a press moment, Rutte spoke of “an escalation” that “requires a sharp response” and “cannot remain unanswered.” Later in the day during the weekly question time in the House of Representatives, he said: “Ukraine is not to be blamed. What is happening here is entirely Russia’s fault.”
On Monday evening, Rutte sat at the table on talk show Jinek to talk about the Dutch Olympic success and the upcoming municipal elections, when reports came in that Russia may want to send troops to the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. A visibly shocked Rutte found it “uncomfortable to sit here” and left the talk show prematurely. The next day, he made a commitment to the House that the Netherlands will make a case for the strongest possible sanctions in the EU. The cabinet also called on the Russian ambassador.
Russian President Putin announced on Monday that Donetsk and Luhansk, where pro-Russian and Moscow-backed rebels have kept Ukraine out of control for years, will be formally recognized. Rutte called this “serious enough in itself”, but the real ‘red line’ as far as he is concerned is whether Russia is also active “militarily” in the constituent republics. If that is the case, much tougher EU sanctions immediately come into play, according to the prime minister.
One step less than Johnson
The question on Tuesday was therefore: is it so? Rutte couldn’t say that. Yes, there are images that indicate that Russian soldiers are already in the republics, but according to the prime minister, reports about this were still “unconfirmed” on Tuesday afternoon, both at the EU and the military alliance NATO. Rutte wanted the words of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who already openly an invasion speak, do not take over. “Johnson goes a step further, but that’s his style.” At the same time, Rutte also expressed the fear that Johnson “is right, but we will have to determine that in the coming hours”.
The danger, MPs fear, is that this will turn into a semantic discussion: Russia has in fact been active for years in the constituent republics, in support of the pro-Russian rebels. Is an invasion of an area where you are already an invasion? Until now, the Netherlands has always said that “a less far-reaching attack” against Ukraine will also be answered with a very strong European response.
Lighter sanction package
Earlier in the day it was announced that the EU appears to be aiming for a lighter sanctions package for the time being, as long as it is not clear whether Russia has also taken military steps. Member of parliament Ruben Brekelmans (VVD) found that difficult to understand. If the EU always reacts with small steps, Russia will continue to take bigger and bigger steps, but that cannot go on indefinitely. “The next escalation is a direct confrontation between Ukraine and Russia,” said Brekelmans. And then you are too late as an EU. Shouldn’t there be a strong sanctions package now?
The prime minister said he agrees with this analysis. In Brussels, the Netherlands is pressing for a ‘very solid package’. But it also depends on what other EU countries are willing to do. “I was satisfied with Rutte’s promise,” Berkelmans said afterwards. “But I am afraid that the EU is only reacting and not looking further ahead to discourage another escalation.”
Rutte nevertheless sounded optimistic: he praised the German decision to temporarily shut down the German-Russian gas project NordStream II. According to the prime minister, that is a very strong signal to the Russians. This attitude of Rutte can be seen as a turning point: for years the Netherlands, like Germany, was of the opinion that Nordstream is a ‘commercial project’ in which politics should not interfere much. In the early years, the Netherlands was also closely involved in the gas project.
Since then, geopolitical awareness in the Netherlands has grown strongly, partly due to the downing of the MH17 flight (2014), when nearly 200 Dutch people were killed by a Russian Bukkake missile. Last Friday, the cabinet cut the knot over the supply of defensive weapons to Ukraine. These include three thousand combat helmets, two thousand fragmentation vests, thirty metal detectors, two detection robots to detect naval mines and one hundred sniper rifles with associated ammunition.
keep a cool head
Member of parliament Jasper van Dijk (SP) called on Tuesday to “keep a cool head” and to continue to give diplomacy a chance despite everything. Brekelmans (VVD) was annoyed by this: “It is said that we should keep a cool head, there is only one who does not and that is Putin.”
Van Dijk also calls Putin’s actions “completely unacceptable”, but is concerned about the clash of arms, also on the European side: the call to strengthen the eastern flank of the EU with additional NATO troops is growing. “We must focus on sanctions to bring Putin back to the negotiating table and not choose the path of war.” He remains against supplying weapons. Weapons are “aimed at killing people” and only lead to a new arms race.
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According to Van Dijk, Putin’s strategy is not only aggressive, but also incomprehensible. He points to the ‘identity crisis’ in which NATO found itself until recently. The military alliance was “brain dead,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in 2019. Americans seemed less interested in the transatlantic relationship. NATO also fell hard in Afghanistan last year. Van Dijk: “Putin has managed like no other that NATO is now resurrecting. He is not a great strategist in that regard.”