Exactly 52 weeks before American President Joe Biden hopes to run for a second term, his Democrats achieved important ballot box victories on Tuesday in Ohio, Virginia and Kentucky, among others. The broad social dissatisfaction about the abolition of the fundamental federal right to abortion by the Supreme Court in June 2022 is still mobilizing many voters for the ruling party a year and a half later.
Virginia: Democrats double victory
The result in Virginia in particular is a boost for the party of the unpopular and, according to many voters, too old president (80). The Democrats retained their majority in the Senate in the southern state and managed to retake the House after two years of opposition. Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who is speculated to have presidential ambitions, had focused on control of both chambers. On the other hand, he now has to work with the opposing party for the last two years of his term.
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Republicans in Virginia are testing an abortion position that doesn’t keep them losing
The battle for Virginia’s parliamentary representation was followed nationally, as Republicans campaigned on what they called a “reasonable” abortion law. Unlike the strict bans that fellow Republicans introduced in fourteen more conservative states after the Court’s ruling, this law would have allowed termination of a pregnancy up to the fifteenth week. The Republicans hoped to win back moderate Democrats and independent voters, especially in the most electorally interesting suburbs. That middle ground didn’t work.
Ohio: Abortion rights enshrined
Many voters no longer trust Republicans on this issue, as was also evident in mid-western Ohio on Tuesday. The predominantly conservative state largely (56 percent) agreed in a referendum with ‘Issue 1‘, which enshrines so-called reproductive rights in the state constitution. After the court ruling, Republicans in Ohio introduced a law banning abortion starting at the sixth week, when many women do not yet know they are pregnant. This ban had already been temporarily suspended pending a final court ruling and can now no longer come into effect.
Ohio is the seventh state to embrace abortion rights by referendum. Previously, California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont either supported proposals similar to those in Ohio or voters rejected bans. In both “red” and “blue” states, Americans at the ballot box are turning against the repeal of Roe v. Wade, the landmark ruling that has underpinned the federal right to abortion since 1973. The party of former President Trump, which strengthened the Court with three conservative judges in his first and only term (2017-2021), also won fewer seats in the November 2022 Congressional elections than is usual for an opposition party during ‘midterms’.
The Democrats hope that the dissatisfaction with the Republican anti-abortion position will also help them in the presidential and congressional elections at the end of 2024. To attract more voters to the polls, they are preparing referendums such as Tuesday’s in Arizona, Florida and Missouri, among others. in Ohio.
Kentucky: Governor wins
In Kentucky, one of the more conservative states in the country, incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won another term. He was challenged by Republican ex-Justice Secretary Daniel Cameron, who enjoyed the support of Mitch McConnell, the Republican faction leader in the Senate, and ex-President Trump, who won the southern state in the presidential elections three years ago with a margin of 25 percentage points.
The Republicans attempted to defeat Beshear by linking the governor as much as possible with President Biden and his Democrats, who are little liked in Kentucky. However, Beshear, who is widely appreciated in the state, managed to defend his post with relative ease (6 percentage point lead), including by attacking the Republican ban on abortion in the state.