Germans are expecting an economic slump
As Der Spiegel reports, citing the opinion research institute YouGov, three quarters of Germans are expecting an economic slump and are trying to adjust their consumer behavior accordingly. 58 percent are expected to cut back more on buying new clothes, 55 percent on vacation spending and 52 percent on leisure activities. This change in behavior is mainly due to high inflation, as indicated by 60 percent of respondents. The same is true on the business side. Here, 60 percent of 520 companies surveyed stated that they were already working out a strategy to be able to react to an economic downturn. Every third company would increase prices further in the event of an economic downturn, which could exacerbate the crisis again. The Gfk consumer climate index also reflects this trend. The GfK consumer climate index is considered an important indicator of the consumer behavior of German consumers and thus a guide for the economic development in Germany. The consumer climate for the last two months is at -41.90 points, the lowest level since 2006.
Great dissatisfaction among the population/h2>
As YouGov’s new inflation tracker also shows, 78 percent of Germans are not satisfied with how the government is reacting to the increased cost of living (as of September 2022). The British and Italians are the most dissatisfied at 82 percent. With regard to their own financial situation, 47 percent of Germans also claim that they cannot afford their expenses at all or can barely afford them. Above all, the high energy prices are causing problems for people. Here, 23 percent believe that they have had difficulties paying their heating and electricity costs within the last three months. One in five also had difficulty affording fuel in the past three months. For this study, 2,002 people were interviewed in Germany.
Worry about the holiday shopping season
According to a press release, the German Retail Association (HDE) is assuming quite stable results, especially for the last two months, as sales are expected to increase by 5.4 percent. Adjusted for price, however, there is a minus of four percent compared to the previous year. The HDE explains that there is great uncertainty due to the difficult situation. According to an HDE survey, 70 percent of the 500 companies surveyed expect worse Christmas business than in the previous year. On the customer side, the HDE consumption barometer only indicated a slightly higher level of the most recent all-time low. Managing Director Stefan Genth points out that sales are only increasing due to inflation and that it will remain a difficult time for companies. For 2022 as a whole, the HDE assumes a real minus of 0.1 percent. According to the HDE, online trade in particular has fallen by 7.2 percent in real terms after “two outstanding years”. This is also reflected in the parcel volumes, with the Bundesverband Paket & Expresslogistik (BIEK) also assuming lower shipment volumes, which can be attributed to the consequences of inflation and the Ukraine war. In the first half of 2022, this led to a drop in shipments of 11.4 percent. Despite the downturn, however, it should be said that the BIEK expects around five million more parcels per day on peak days around Christmas, which would be a significant increase compared to the previous months.
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