The municipal elections represent the first great examination of the management of Pere Aragones as ‘president’ of a government in the minority and alone after the break with Junts. But the exam CKD it is double and has forced him to combine his social and economic message with the pro-independence discourse. And it is that he has to fight with him PSC in the metropolitan area of Barcelona and with together in the rest of Catalonia. In 2019, the Republicans beat the Socialists by just 1.5 points and 53,629 votes, but took two provincial capitals from them (Lleida and tarragona). But, on the map, in which fiefdoms is every game played this Sunday?
For Salvador Illa, reaching the Generalitat happens first by winning on May 28, a purpose that implies maintaining its robustness in the great metropolitan nursery -with the victory in Barcelona as a climax- but also to recover muscles outside of it, especially in the provincial capitals. The Catalan socialists seek to repeat the feat of the Catalan women and to be the most voted party again in Catalonia. In 2019 they were only 54,000 votes behind ERC and now that the PSC brand and Illa’s leadership are on the rise, they believe they are in a position to climb to the top of the podium.
Of the 19 cities with more than 20,000 inhabitants that orbit around Barcelona, 15 are governed by the PSC and in eight of them do so with an absolute majority: L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Cornellà, Santa Coloma de Gramenet, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Viladecans, Gavà, Esplugues and Sant Joan Despí, where its most emblematic mayors are concentrated. They also govern with comfortable majorities in Badia del Vallès, Sant Adrià de Besòs or Sant Andreu de la Barca, and are emblematic for the PSC Sabadell, killed and Granollers. More difficult Terrassa and especially complex is badalonawhere the socialists now govern thanks to the always complex sum of the left.
But outside of its traditional area of influence, the great thorns in the PSC -Barcelona aside- are tarragona and Lleida. Two great mayors that ERC pocketed in the municipal past after years of socialist reign and that they have between eyebrows to return to their domains. win in the city Gironawhere Carlos Puigdemont He was mayor, they see it more difficult.
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Of the three major Catalan parties, along with PSC and Junts, it is the Republican force that most is homogeneously present throughout the territory, both in the metropolitan region and in the ‘rere-país’. And also lies its weakness. A discourse that serves all of Catalonia at the same time supposes a roof in each of the two subparts. In essence, the scheme is the same as in 2019 and 2015. Junts against ERC in the ‘rere-country’; PSC against ERC in the metropolitan area. The only thing that varies is the progressive growth of the Republicans who already dare to say out loud that they are going to way to break the socialist hegemony in the surroundings of Barcelona. Although it will certainly not be in these elections.
Leaving Barcelona aside, ERC has the mayoralty of Lleidaof tarragona and is in the municipal government of Girona. The one in Tarragona will be a battle without quarter with the socialists, who are the ones who won in votes, in 2019. Now they aspire to the ‘sorpasso’ in votes and, of course, to the sum of forces that the mayor’s office gives them again. Beyond the capital, there are many hopes placed in Noemí Llauradó in Reus and in Joan Reig, in Constantí. The Terres de l’Ebre they will be Republicans again, something that has already become the norm since the controversy over the transfer of the EbroDuring the Aznar period, he subverted the established order in those regions. As for Lleida, “after some bad polls a year ago, we are in a comeback”, admits the party that trusted everything during the electoral campaign.
In the other big party, the metropolitan, ERC trusts in a great growth of votes that, although it still does not provide any mayoralty or, even, entry into the municipal government of the main socialist strongholdsif they remove all doubt that the a referent for independence in the region is solely and exclusively ERC.CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION
With Xavier Trias, Junts has gone from having polls that placed the party in an irrelevant position, when the candidate was Elsa Artadi, to opting for victory. but she has been Trias who has not only affirmed that he can win, but also flatly maintains that he will win with a wide margin, with 14 councilors or more (now they have five). This conviction of the candidate means that everything that is not winning and governing becomes a resounding failure.
But if Trias fails to govern, then Junts will have to make up the overall result. And it is at stake especially in the main city that governs today: Girona. There the bad forecasts of the current mayoress, Martha Madrenas, have opted for a change in favor of the ‘ex-minister’ Gemma Geis, relocated after leaving the Government. Everything that is not to revalidate the municipal power in the municipality, fiefdom of the ‘expresident’ and leader of the party, Carlos PuigdemontIt will be another resounding failure. This fiasco can also take place in the form of a pact between other parties to unseat Junts, something that cannot be ruled out.
Where expectations are not at all optimistic for Junts is in the Barcelona metropolitan area, where they trust the so-called ‘Trias effect’ to try to achieve representation in an area where four years ago Vox or the PP were barely outvoted in certain municipalities, where the post-convergence party does not have any local representation. Junts not only gambles in the cities and towns but in the councils. In Barcelona, especially, where he hopes to continue governing with the PSC.
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For Ada Colau these elections are a all or nothing. Or manages to be mayor a third term or there will be a turning point in its municipal trajectory. And what happens in Barcelona is so crucial that for the Comuns it is also the thermometer of your success or a strong blow from which it will be difficult to come back in Catalonia. Without the capital, your project would enter into crisis because it would mean losing your main share of powerno matter how hard they try to retain the fifteen town halls that are now under their domains and increase their territorial representation.
Therefore, more than any other game, En Comú Podem is at stake in Barcelona. It falls within their priorities to retain the mayoralties that they consider to be the most emblematic and that mostly come from the inheritance of ICV. Specifically, that of the five most populated municipalities in which they govern. They take for granted that Lluis Mijoler will continue to rule the Prat de Llobregat, square that does not know another baton that is not ecosocialist. are also priorities Saint Perpetua of Mogoda, Montcada i Reixac, Sant Feliu de Llobregat and Montornes del Valles.
Beyond consolidating these fiefdoms, if the Comuns are looking for one thing, it is to increase their representation and reverse the negative consequences that led to fragmentation with which they competed in 2019. Now that they have sealed a solid coalition with Podem so as not to compete with each other, they believe they are in a position to overcome the 264 councilors they now have and achieve two milestones: becoming the fourth force in Catalonia in percentage of votes and return to being, as they were in 2015, seconds in Baix Llobregat.
Citizens are directly risking their existence, with some surveys that leave them out of the Barcelona City Council. But beyond the capital, the oranges also have other hot spots, despite presenting less than half as many lists as four years ago. One of the main focuses is the Metropolitan areawith special attention on the Hospitalet de Llobregat -in 2019 they were third with four councilors- and Santa Coloma de Gramenet -they are second force with also four representatives-. In the two municipalities, the PSC currently has an absolute majority, but orange party sources anticipate that they could lose it and consider it a priority to have representation in the city council to condition the government.
Outside the radius of Barcelona, the same sources indicate a special interest in the other three provincial capitals, despite the fact that in all of them they start from the ‘handicap’ of having had to change candidates. In Tarragona, who was a candidate for the orange party in 2019, Ruben Vinuales, is now the mayor of the PSC. While in Lleida, Angels Elisa Ribes is now the head of the list valentines.
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The main objective of the PP is to obtain “presence” in the municipalities where they lost it and also “influence”, if arithmetic allows it, within local governments. Geographically there are five key points: Barcelona -due to the importance of the capital-, badalona and Castelldefels -where they can recover the mayor’s office- and also the small municipalities of gimenells and pontoons -that they aspire to retain-.
Of the 36 municipalities in the metropolitan area, the popular ones currently only have representation in six. Apart from Barcelona, Badalona and Castelldefels, they have a councilor in Hospitaletanother in gava and one more in Esplugues de Llobregat. A very different situation from that of 2015, when they removed representatives in up to 27 of the municipalities of the Metropolitan Area. The popular ones saw their power weighed down in these cities -and also in Barcelona-, basically, by the force of Ciutadans.