In recent weeks, EU member states have agreed on one of the toughest sanctions packages ever against Russia. When Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014, it was left with targeted sanctions against a number of officials close to President Vladimir Putin; later a number of companies and goods were added. Now Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov are also on the list of sanctioned individuals whose assets have been frozen in the EU. In addition, the sanctions target important sectors of the Russian economy in order to hinder the financing of the war in Ukraine.
At the beginning of the war, some member states were still hesitant about some sanctions, for example the exclusion of Russian banks from the international payment organization SWIFT. In the meantime, there is only disagreement about one far-reaching measure: a stop on energy imports for which one billion is transferred to Russia every day.
Stuck
The sanctions also affect ordinary citizens in Russia, and the costs for Europe’s own economies are also high. Trade with Russia will decline, businesses could be squeezed, and energy will become even more expensive for everyone. That is also why governments are hesitant to stop importing Russian gas, oil and coal. Among some Member States, the dependence on Russian energy is too great. There are also major concerns about the impact of higher energy bills on the most vulnerable in society.
We therefore expect that criticism of the sanctions will increase, especially if the consequences become more tangible. Critics will argue that sanctions have almost never been effective and that no behavioral change is to be expected in this case either. They may also point to China’s lack of support for the sanctions, and that they may be helping Russia evade them. These arguments are not untrue, yet sanctions are nevertheless very important and, in our view, necessary.
The signal is: this is more than just a step in easing the international legal order
Indeed, past sanctions have not led the Belarusian dictator to accept an election result or to stop North Korea from ending its nuclear program. But this does not make sanctions useless. Sanctions can hinder actions. It has become much more difficult – and quite expensive – for North Korea to source components for its nuclear program. The sanctions against Russia will cause the Russian economy to contract sharply. Putin will soon have to make a decision that is also sensitive in a dictatorship: how much of the shrinking economy will be spent on the war. He will also have to sell to the people that there are no more domestic flights, cavities in teeth can no longer be filled, and knee operations can no longer take place.
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However, the main effect of sanctions has little to do with the immediate goal itself. Sanctions have always been an important signal to others, showing the state of a social norm. The normative order is constantly changing at both national and international level, where current norms make room for new ones. Whether a violation of a social norm foreshadows a change in the normative order—or merely a violation that does not affect this order—depends primarily on our collective response.
Punishments of criminals
In principle, international sanctions are no different from punishing criminals. A change in behavior is usually not to be expected. Despite the fact that punishments don’t work that way, they are still necessary to show that violating some norms is not acceptable.
With the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has violated a fundamental norm of international law: the prohibition of violence against another state. Statements in the Security Council and the UN General Assembly show that this is not an attack on the liberal international order, as Putin likes to suggest. The ban on aggression is actually supported by the vast majority of states. Precisely this large majority is a sign that the invasion of Ukraine is more than just a step in the relaxation of the liberal order. This response sends an important signal to any government considering threatening or invading a neighboring country.
Other countries are watching closely the international response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For China, it is an indicator of what they can expect if they want to push through the union with Taiwan by force. If one argues that sanctions do not achieve their goal and only incur costs for ourselves, they have not fully understood how sanctions really work.