The advance is the biggest Ukrainian breakthrough in the south since the Russian invasion. It is striking that Russia openly admits that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is progressing well. According to Moscow, Ukrainian tank units have broken through the Russian lines in various places. “New population centers have been liberated in several regions,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday. According to some reports, the Ukrainians advanced tens of kilometers north of Kherson.
The sudden success on the southern front is yet another military setback for the Kremlin in a short time. With the capture of the strategic cities of Izhum and Lyman in the northeast, the Russians have already suffered significant losses in recent weeks. Land loss in the south is the last thing the Kremlin can use right now.
Significant territorial gains
According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which analyzes the war on a daily basis, the Ukrainian army has made ‘significant gains’ in recent days in both the east and the south. Videos show Ukrainian tank units advancing near Kherson, firing on Russian positions.
The ISW points out that the breakthroughs are a sensitive loss of face for Russian elite units. Their inability to halt the Ukrainian advance at Kherson and eastern Lyman, which fell on Sunday, should set alarm bells ringing in the Kremlin. “Even the largest elite units of the Russian army are increasingly in decline as the war continues,” the military think-tank said.
Moscow made no attempt to disguise the Ukrainian advance. “With numerically superior tank units, the enemy managed to push deep through our defences,” said a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry. According to him, the Ukrainians broke through Russian lines at two places, including Oleksandrivka, which is west of Kherson. The tank units also managed to advance north of the city, along the Dnipro River.
Ukraine also launched a major offensive at Kherson in the summer, but failed to break through Russian lines on a large scale. To the surprise of Russia and the West, this succeeded in the northeast near Kharkiv. The Ukrainian army is trying to enclose an estimated 25,000 Russian soldiers on the west bank of the Dnipro near Kherson.
With the destruction of important bridges over the river, an attempt is made to isolate the Russians from the rest of their army on the other side of the river. At the same time, attempts are made to advance towards the city from various sides, west and northeast, to force the Russians to surrender. Northeast of Kherson, the Ukrainians are said to have advanced tens of kilometers along the Dnipro in recent days.
It is striking that the pro-Russian administrators of Kherson do not deny or downplay the advance of the Ukrainian army. “Yes, there were indeed breakthroughs,” said Vladimir Saldo, the leader of the occupied region. According to him, the Ukrainians managed to surprise the Russians at Duchany, which is about a hundred kilometers from Kherson, among other places. “There are settlements occupied by Ukrainian troops.”
Rapid advance
This means that the Ukrainian army has moved miles south, towards Kherson, without being stopped by the Russians. Dochany is located about thirty kilometers from where the front line was last week. A video shows soldiers raising the Ukrainian flag in the village of Myrolyubivka, some 20 kilometers in area until recently occupied by the Russian army. “All credit to our heroes,” tweeted Anton Herashchenko, a senior adviser to the Interior Ministry.
The coming days should show whether the rapid advance along the Dnipro towards Kherson will be a repeat of last month’s successful offensive at Kharkiv. Thousands of Russian soldiers fled, leaving behind many military equipment such as tanks and armored vehicles. There were no reports Monday that panic had struck Russian units around Kherson.
However, the defense ministry in Moscow said soldiers had withdrawn from the two sites where the Ukrainian tank units had broken through and taken up defensive positions elsewhere. The Russian artillery would also fire at the Ukrainians. Even if the southern offensive continues to prosper in the coming weeks, taking Kherson will still be a huge task for the Ukrainians. Retaking such a large city – Kherson had a population of about 300,000 before the invasion – is military of a completely different order than liberating small towns like Izhum and Lyman.
Reportedly, if the Ukrainian army is close to the gates of Kherson, it would be out to encircle the Russian units and force them to give up the fight. However, such a massive surrender of Russian soldiers has not happened until now.