The costs of care in the Netherlands will rise “explosively” in the coming years, say researchers from Intrakoop. The healthcare purchasing cooperative draws this conclusion an analysis of the annual reports of nearly 1,500 healthcare institutions, such as hospitals, care for the disabled, nursing homes and mental health institutions. Hospital care in particular will cost more: if the development of recent years continues, the costs will rise to 42.4 billion euros in 2026. That is double compared to 2012, when Intrakoop started the annual analyzes of the turnover figures of healthcare institutions .
It is inevitable that healthcare costs will rise in the coming years. Healthcare institutions are also faced with increasing procurement costs and salary increases. Moreover, the aging population is putting a heavy burden on healthcare. Nevertheless, health economist Marcel Canoy of VU University Amsterdam questions the Intrakoop report. The figures from the publication are based on previous annual reports (the most recent from 2021) and continue that line.
That is not enough to make a prediction. It does not take into account policies that are already being made or will be made. Rather, it is a projection: if nothing happens, this is the outcome. But nothing is happening.” According to Canoy, there are “all kinds of policies coming up” that are not included in the report. “In the Integrated Care Agreement of last year, agreements were made about appropriate care.”
Read also: The dreaded ‘care infarction’ has already arrived. Who will be affected? That’s a matter of chance
‘Place in perspective’
Harald Bresser, spokesperson for Intrakoop, also says that the report should be placed “in perspective”. “It is an extrapolation of the current exchange rate. The expectations are therefore not so much based on facts, because we do not yet know the figures from 2022 – let alone 2023.” Nevertheless, he thinks that the conclusions of the report still stand. Bresser calls the outcome of the report a “signal” for policymakers. “Perhaps the exact forecasts will not come true because of policies that are already in the making. But we will have to look at that by then.”
Wouter van der Horst, spokesman for the Dutch Association of Hospitals, considers Intrakoop’s prognosis to be ‘real’. “The high increase did not surprise us in any case, given the increasing demand for care and rising purchasing and personnel costs.” Van der Horst believes that if agreements from the Integral Care Agreement (IZA) are met, such as more digital care, more efficient processes and less expensive medicines, the predicted increase can be somewhat reduced. “But the IZA is just a work agenda. You hope it all works, but we won’t know for years to come.”
Falling purchasing power
Xander Koolman, also a health economist at VU University Amsterdam, says that the need for care will indeed increase rapidly due to the aging population. But that doesn’t mean health care spending is rising just as fast. Because: as a society we spend what we can spare, not what is necessarily needed. And aging reduces purchasing power, says Koolman. “There are fewer working people. And those who do still work have more caring responsibilities for the elderly. That means slower growth for the economy. As a result, less will be spent on healthcare at a macro level: the government will allow healthcare expenditure to rise less quickly.” The fact that healthcare costs are somewhat reduced as a result is not necessarily positive. “As a result, care is becoming scarcer. Think of longer waiting lists or less home care.”
Health economist Canoy finds the signal sent by the Intrakoop report – costs will rise enormously if nothing happens – in itself not wrong. “There is great pressure on healthcare and the policy to limit cost increases is not enough. There is certainly still room for improvement.”