Head of Ukrainian intelligence service: “Chances are slim that Putin will survive war, talks about succession are already underway” | War Ukraine and Russia

Budanov predicts that Kherson will be back in Ukrainian hands by the end of next month. “Russia’s best-trained troops are now hiding there. This includes elite soldiers, members of the air force, the navy and also special forces. They are about 40,000, supplemented by a whole lot of reservists,” it sounds.

“Strong that Russia managed to mobilize a total of 220,000 extra troops, but in modern warfare they won’t make a difference. They are too poorly trained and equipped for that, rather call them cannon fodder.”

In Ukraine, there are fears that the dam at the Kachovka hydroelectric power station will be blown up, causing tens of thousands of homes to flood rapidly. Budanov doesn’t think things will go that fast, though. “The Russians are more likely to want to destroy the road above the dam, causing our vehicles to get stuck. They probably want to buy some time to escape from Kherson, but it won’t slow down our progress.”

On to Belarus then. What are the chances of an attack coming from that country to cut off the supply line from the West? “That is of course Russia’s wet dream, but at the moment there are only 4,300 soldiers active in that region. In 80 percent of the cases, these are still reservists. So there is no impending invasion now, but that could change quickly if Kherson falls. The Russians will then withdraw further towards Zaporizhzhya, some may move to Belarus and pose a new danger there. But we are prepared for that scenario.”

The large amount of mud on the battlefield nowadays acts as a bummer. “At one point we took advantage of it, but now it has become a big problem,” said Budanov. “Tanks sometimes get stuck for days after a heavy rain shower, which is why there is currently little movement in the trenches.”

The head of the intelligence service remains ignorant about the nuclear threat. “Russia is a terrorist state with a nuclear arsenal, so theoretically it remains a possibility. However, we do not see any preparatory activities of this nature. Meanwhile, the enemy accuses us of producing a dirty bomb, but we will never stoop to that. With that lie, the Russians just want to put pressure on us to get us around the negotiating table.”

The greatest danger for now seems to come from Iranian kamikazedrones. “They are supposedly only used to affect our energy infrastructure, but sometimes apartment buildings are also affected. When several floors collapse, many women and children are always killed,” said Budanov.

Next month, Russia is also likely to have Iranian precision missiles with a range between 300 and 700 kilometers. “They pose a serious threat because they move very fast and – unlike the Russian ones – are very accurate. We must rely on our air defenses and can only hope that our allies will provide even more air defense systems.”

According to Budanov, the war will only come to an end when the 1991 borders are restored. In that year Ukraine declared independence, with Crimea as a full part. “I don’t want to divulge too much about our military planning, but by next year we should have succeeded in that aim. The Russian people will continue to support the government until defeat, but then I expect Putin to be deposed. Talks are already underway in Russia about his succession. But whoever comes to power, Putin will be blamed for everything that went wrong,” Budanov concluded.

Also read: ANALYSIS. Russia is going to drop that ‘dirty bomb’. We know how and where, just not yet when (+)