Despite gloomy economic forecasts, the mood of German consumers brightened somewhat in October. This emerges from a current survey, the results of which were published by the German Trade Association (HDE) on Monday.
According to the industry organization, the HDE consumption barometer for October “increased compared to the previous month and reached the level at which it was last at the beginning of 2022 and thus before the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine”. The monthly index is based on a survey of 1,600 people on consumption-related topics.
Despite pessimistic economic expectations, the propensity to buy is increasing
The main reason for the slight increase in the consumption barometer compared to September was a higher propensity to purchase among the consumers surveyed. The study authors cited “a slight shift from saving to consumption” as the reason for the increased purchasing mood. Compared to the previous month, the intention to invest savings decreased somewhat.
With regard to general economic development, however, the study participants were somewhat more pessimistic than in September. As a result, individual income expectations also fell slightly.
The trade association expects “fundamentally weak development for the rest of the year”
In view of the mixed results, the HDE does not expect a significant improvement in purchasing mood in the coming months. It can be “assumed that the fundamentally weak development will continue for the rest of the year,” the association admitted in a statement. Therefore, “private consumption will probably only provide growth impetus again next year.”
After all, with the Christmas business, which is so important for retail, “at least no collapse in private consumption is to be expected in the fourth quarter of 2023,” emphasized the industry organization.