The German Trade Association (HDE) does not expect any major positive impulses from the recently started Christmas business.
Local retailers could expect total sales of 120.8 billion euros in November and December, the industry organization said at its Christmas press conference on Monday. This would correspond to nominal growth of 1.5 percent compared to the same period last year.
Total sales in November and September are expected to grow only due to price increases
However, the increase is only due to the price increases of the past few months, the association explained. In real terms – i.e. adjusted for the effects of price developments – revenues are expected to decline by 5.5 percent.
According to the HDE’s findings, Christmas business will also be subdued in online retail. Sales in this segment will stagnate nominally at the corresponding previous year’s level of 21.2 billion euros, but will fall by 4.0 percent in real terms, according to a statement.
The mood among retailers and consumers is clouded
The mood among retailers is correspondingly clouded. In a survey conducted by the association, a total of 51 percent of companies from the non-food segment stated that they expected Christmas business to be “worse” (37 percent) or even “significantly worse” (14 percent) than last year.
HDE President Alexander von Preen referred to the persistently adverse general conditions as justification: “The industry is feeling the economic effects of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent inflation and, more recently, the further decline in buying mood as a result of the Middle East conflict,” he explained in a statement. In view of the cautious mood of consumers, “a major positive boost for the retail sector” cannot be expected in the important weeks before the holidays, the HDE concluded.
The association is sticking to its sales forecasts for the full year
The association stuck to its existing forecasts for the full year 2023. He therefore continues to expect a nominal sales increase of 3.0 percent to 649.9 billion euros. This corresponds to a real minus of 4.0 percent. In online business, annual sales are expected to reach 84.5 billion euros, as in the previous year. In real terms, e-commerce revenues would therefore decline by 4.3 percent.