“Every degree increase in temperature results in more melting and lost glaciers,” study co-author Regine Hock of the Universities of Oslo and Alaska summarizes the study. The 1.5 degree warming is the most ambitious goal of the Paris climate agreement, which according to experts is no longer feasible.
The current expectation is that the temperature will rise by 2.7 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. If so, according to the scientists, virtually all glaciers in Central Europe, Western Canada, the United States and New Zealand will disappear by 2100.
Regardless of the further course of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions, the world’s smaller glaciers, with an area of less than 1 square kilometer, are especially at risk, says Hock. The 104,000 glaciers that will have disappeared in 2100 when the earth warms up 1.5 degrees, represent about 26 percent of the total ice mass on earth. “Regions with relatively little ice, such as the European Alps, will almost all have lost their ice by the end of this century,” says the researcher.
The research, which was carried out in collaboration with institutes in Austria, Canada, France and Switzerland, is more pessimistic about the future of the glaciers than, for example, experts from the United Nations (UN).
The consequences of the melting ice masses are numerous, according to the scientists. Two billion people worldwide depend on glaciers for drinking water. The sea level is also rising due to the melting of glaciers. A 1.5 degree warming is an increase of nine centimetres. At 4 degrees of warming, the sea level will rise fifteen centimeters. “That may sound like little, but storm surges can cause much more damage because of this,” says Hock.