Haka is not scary – AC Oulu ready to dance

Lee Erwin has already scored 11 goals this season. JUHA TAMMINEN / AOP

The most interesting game of the day

The English Championship starts on Friday when Watford hosts Burnley on their home field, so it’s about the struggle of two relegated from the Premier League.

Watford progress unbeaten. The victory in the opening round was deserved, but last time as a guest of WBA, the Hornets were quite clearly the weaker side of the match, even if they managed to get a 1-1 draw.

However, the Baggies were about two goals ahead in goal expectations and the Hornets had to take on a lot in the game. With Albion’s better finishing, Watford would definitely have lost. Midfield Imran Louza continue on the side.

However, at least for the time being, Watford has survived the challenging start to the season with dry feet, so the yellow-billed koutsi With Rob Edwards probably peace of mind – at least for the time being. The team will continue in the 3-4-2-1 format and invest in positive changes of situation. Ball control is clearly something that is not at the center of the game, although the Hornets strive for control a little more at home.

Burnley opened the season with a well-deserved win and, like Watford, continued with a 1-1 draw. Luton was a better team even on the away field and beat xGs by about half a goal. Vincent Kompany however, has already been able to implement the way he wants to play amazingly well, so the Clarets’ playing is already surprisingly ready at this point in the season.

Kompany’s acquisitions support the desired style of play quite well – of course, the Clarets have also lost quality players in the transfer market. Burnley’s straightforwardness and passing combinations in the midfield will surely surprise the opponents from the beginning of the season. From midfield Ashley Westwood mixed Johann Berg Gudmundsson ynän kekki Matej Vydra are at the dock.

The match can be expected to be well-paced and comfortably undulating, entertaining and interesting. Burnley’s fresh directness produces clearly more goal expectations than before. Watford, on the other hand, turns the game so well that the counter-attacks should create opportunities to break through. Of course, if the Hornets defend as low as they did against WBA, it will be more challenging for the hosts to create quality scoring situations.

There isn’t a huge difference in level between the teams’ materials, but I rate the Clarets a bit higher. Thus, through home advantage, Watford rises to an even smaller, 42 percent favorite position. The expected goal value of the match is quite low, which increases the probability of a draw to 29 points. Veikkaus’ odds are awkwardly right in both the 1X2 and handicap markets, and there is nothing to play with these estimates. The closest we get is in Watford’s Asian -0.25 handicap, where Veikkaus’ coefficient is 1.94, while Arvioni’s estimate for the event is 49 percent and the limit coefficient is thus 2.04. He will remain fit for a long time.

I have estimated the expected goal to be a little under 2.40. Even in this market, the odds are right, and there is nothing to play.

Burnley remain goalless a little more than once in three. The most likely results of the match are 1–1, 1–0 and 0–0.

The match starts at 22:00.

For my part, I want to thank the readers and those who gave feedback. My summer hiatus is now over and I hope to continue this column after a good summer’s rest Timo Brander.

The best betting tip of the day

The best betting idea of ​​the day can be found in the home Veikkausliiga, the match between Haka and AC Oulu.

FC Haka has been flying really hard during the summer and the long unbeaten streak in the series was broken only in the last round, when the valkeakoskis lost, perhaps a little surprisingly, to a 0-2 defeat experienced as a guest of IFK Mariehamn. Minus marks were recorded on the island especially for defensive players. Lee Erwin has already scored eleven hits at the top and carried Haka with his own skills, but is now also a marked man.

AC Oulu has been clearly undervalued by bookies for a long time. Sure, the team hasn’t played as well as the results suggest throughout the season, but the seams of the navy blue have still been underestimated. The improvement in the formation situation improves the balance of the midfield and tightens the Oulu players’ defensive play. If the hosts have quality in attack, so will the visitors Rasmus Karjalainen in terms of.

The match has clear ingredients for plenty of goals, because playing defense is not the best area of ​​competence of either of them. At the same time, teams’ pressing play often produces possessions from high up, so there is a threat in turnovers. Haka in particular is particularly good in his change of direction play, but AC Oulu also offers a similar threat.

I think the level difference between the teams has been exaggerated. Even though Haka and AC Oulu are on equal points before the round and fighting for a place in the upper secondary series, there is a level difference between the teams of about one class in favor of the Valkeakoskis. Thus, with the home advantage and better material, Haka rises to the position of favorite to win one out of two times in the match. ACO’s straight win odds of 4.95 are overmultipliers.

However, the betting interest and the game recommendation are dug from a leveling direction. The Asian handicap +0.75 AC for Oulu gives a rather nice overcoefficient, while Veikkaus’ offer is 2.02. My estimate for the event is 53 percent and the limit coefficient is thus 1.89. With this expected value, the bet can easily be placed on games and also rises to the point of recommendation.

The match starts at 18:00.

A very happy end of the summer and a very successful end of the year to the readers.

Today’s games: FC Haka – AC Oulu 2, Asian handicap +0.75 (coefficient 2.02)

Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.