Growth machine ASML expects stagnation in 2024, and then of course strong growth again

Chip machine manufacturer ASML expects for the first time in years that its turnover will not rise spectacularly next year. In fact, ASML expects growth stagnation in 2024. The company reported this on Wednesday in an explanation to its quarterly figures. The company sees next year as a transition year in which it will have to comply with the export restrictions against China that the Netherlands introduced under pressure from the United States. But don’t worry, according to CEO Peter Wennink, 2024 will also be an “important year to prepare for the significant growth we expect for 2025.” Turnover must then increase from 30 to 40 billion euros.

ASML usually lives up to those kinds of expectations. Between 2012 and 2022, turnover grew from 4.7 to 21.2 billion euros. ASML is once again doing well this year, the company appears to be achieving growth of 30 percent. However, the past quarter was already considerably worse than the company is used to, with a ‘slight’ decline in turnover of 200 million euros compared to the previous quarter. Net profit fell slightly, from 1.94 to 1.89 billion euros. The total value of orders at ASML decreased by 42 percent to 2.6 billion euros.

Highest stock market value

ASML has by far the highest stock market value of all Dutch companies (225 billion euros), usually has a profit margin of around 50 percent and achieves structural growth of tens of percent annually. So it is quite special that the company suddenly expects stagnation. ASML makes chip machines that can make chips that are used for military purposes, among other things. That is why the US does not want ASML to supply Chinese customers, ASML’s largest sales market.

On Tuesday, the US further tightened its export rules for advanced chips. All this does not worry ASML, as can be seen from the growth forecast for the coming years. For the time being, they are the only ones who have the technology needed to build the advanced chip machines.

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