Is there any sign of rising grain prices in Africa as a result of the war in Ukraine?
‘Yes, they are rising. Although it is important to realize that grain prices were already rising in Ukraine before the war. This is partly due to the shock effects of the corona pandemic, such as the worldwide disruption of container freight due to the lockdowns. Moreover, due to declining tourism, fewer dollars were received for imports. That’s all in the mix.
‘In a country like Kenya, which imports the majority of its wheat, this means that bread has become 10 to 15 percent more expensive last year. The prognosis is that prices will rise even further due to the war in Ukraine. Countries in the north of Africa, which import a lot from Ukraine and Russia, are expected to be particularly affected by this.
‘You can also see it in Oxfam’s report: it contains the rough estimate that a quarter of a billion people will end up in extreme poverty this year. In a minority of cases this has to do with Ukraine. Understandably, this is where the focus is now, but it is not the main problem.’
What are the consequences of rising food prices?
‘Many people are forced to adjust their spending pattern; you have to eat after all. Many inhabitants of Africa spend relatively a much larger part of their income on food than the Dutch. Then initially the bottle of beer will have to wait.
‘It then becomes more serious: then the school fees for the children can no longer be paid. The worst consequence, and there is also a warning, is that the number of people suffering from hunger will increase. It should also be noted that this increase is also related to direct armed conflicts, such as in Yemen and South Sudan.
‘There is already reference to the Arab Spring, more than ten years ago, which also arose against the background of rising food prices. So far, there has certainly been no such unrest. People try to make the most of it.’
Are other prices also rising?
‘Around me, here in Uganda, I hear a lot of complaints in the shops about how expensive things like cooking oil, petrol and sugar have become. Specifically the price of soap has really gone through the roof. That goes back to those disrupted supply chains during the pandemic.’
The Dutch government introduced energy compensation and a reduction in fuel excise duties. Are African governments also taking such measures?
‘No, although I can’t say that with certainty about all countries in Africa. Here in Uganda I hear people say that the government should intervene, but I don’t see it happening with compensation or price subsidies. The Ugandan government is usually only slightly interested in the problems of the population.’
How do they view the war in Ukraine there?
‘In Uganda you don’t get much of the conflict if you don’t actively look for news. Most people also have something else on their mind: trying to organize a plate of food every day. It is therefore difficult to estimate what people’s attitudes towards Russia, for example, are in this conflict.
‘The rulers of many African countries are cautious about taking sides between Russia and the West. About half abstained from voting on the UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion. Uganda, which has close military ties with the United States but does not want to antagonize Russia, also abstained from the vote.
The same goes for South Africa. There has been a lot of internal criticism about this. We are the country of Nelson Mandela and the ANC, how can we watch in silence what is happening in Ukraine is a common reproach. Old ties with Russia dating back to the anti-apartheid struggle are cited as a possible explanation. Then the ANC received support from the Soviet Union.
“But the pressure on African countries that do not want to condemn the invasion is increasing. The US wants them to take sides. And this week, Ukrainian President Zelensky has requested that he address the African Union.”