‘I have plenty of farmers in the app who say: pull the plug,’ says CDA MP Derk Boswijk. But new elections will not solve the nitrogen problem, the CDA member thinks: ‘Then you will be in uncertainty as a farmer for longer.’
Although he ‘does not hope or expect’ that the nitrogen dossier will lead to a cabinet crisis, the discussion has already led to many political tensions, which could possibly rise further. They also feel the same way at the VVD and the ChristenUnie.
Although the cabinet can count on a large parliamentary majority to simply implement the nitrogen plans – parties such as Volt, PvdA and GroenLinks are enthusiastic about it – but not everyone in the country has made it that far. Opposition to the plans turns out to be greater than the coalition expected and is even growing. Out research commissioned by Fidelity showed on Wednesday that almost half (45 percent) of the population fully supports the farmers’ protests. That was 38 percent in October 2021.
The protest is heard deep into the governing parties. At VVD and CDA, various local branches have already openly protested against the parent party in The Hague.
‘This nitrogen crisis has everything it takes to derail completely’, said ChristenUnie leader Gert-Jan Segers on Radio 1. It could even lead to ‘a civil war’, he said. That word may have been chosen a bit unhappily, can be heard the day after by the CU group, but the concern that the disagreement this time not only degenerates into a fierce debate, but perhaps also leads to physical confrontations, is certainly alive in the ChristenUnie.
That concern is not entirely unfounded. MPs from VVD and D66 were unable to attend the farmers’ protest on Wednesday, because their safety could not be guaranteed, the NCTV warned. CDA member Boswijk said ‘personally not to be so afraid of it’ and went anyway.
Goat path
After Wednesday’s farmers’ protest, all eyes will be on The Hague again on Thursday, where the House of Representatives is debating the nitrogen plan. The pressure from the country and the fear of losing the vote from the region in the provincial elections in March, mean that government parties are now looking for a political goat path to temper the anger.
A precarious process, because it is clear to the coalition that the goal of halving nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands will not be tampered with. If only because the mandatory ruling of the Council of State from 2019 leaves little room: without measures to promote nature, entire housing and road construction projects risk coming to a standstill because no more permits will be issued. This reality is not doubted internally by the governing parties. At the same time, they will have to do something to restore a sense of justice to their supporters.
For the time being, the solution is being sought in ‘customization’: the end goal remains the same, but there is still room for discussion about how this will be achieved. “There are many possibilities for that,” said VVD MP Thom van Campen on Tuesday evening On 1† It is CDA member Boswijk against the sore leg that Minister Van der Wal presented her map a week and a half ago with reduction figures per region as if they were cast in concrete. Boswijk demands from Van der Wal that the map be revised. “She really has to get over there.” The ChristenUnie also thinks the card is too firm.
The MPs of the three coalition parties appear to have received that commitment from the minister on Thursday. She announced on Wednesday that the target of 50 percent less nitrogen emissions in 2030 will remain in place, but that the map is only ‘directive’. ‘A lot of customization is still possible.’
Although the minister is meeting the critics with this, the crisis has not been averted. The nitrogen dossier threatens to put the coalition’s stability to the test. There is already slight irritation between VVD, CDA and ChristenUnie on the one hand and D66 on the other. At the D66 congress on Saturday, the words of party chairman Jan Paternotte about ‘simmering provinces’ went down the wrong way from coalition members. In any case, the feeling that D66 is talking with some disdain about the unrest in the country has not been removed.
Cabinet solidarity will be further tested as the March 2023 provincial elections approach. This week, interest party Boer Burger Movement announced that it would participate in all provinces, potentially a huge electoral threat to VVD and CDA in particular. The question is how long those parties will keep their backs straight if a massive loss of seats is imminent.