10:23 July 9, 2023
ABSTRACT: The initial situation and the interpretation of the daily chart has not changed for us for some time: as long as gold is trading below the SMA20 at the end of the day, there is a risk that further levies could occur, initially in the area of 1,880/75 US -dollar and then higher up into the SMA200 area (currently at $1,867.1).
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Current gold analysis on July 9th, 2023: chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
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Gold Review: (07/03/2023 – 07/07/2023)
gold was trading at $1,916.9 as of Monday morning. The precious metal was $9.50 below Monday morning last week’s level and $0.4 below Friday night’s weekly close. Gold initially pulled back moderately on Monday morning, but was then able to move up dynamically and with momentum. Parts of the movement were subsequently sold off again. Prices rose again moderately on Tuesday, but the precious metal continued to move sideways. After a spike movement on Wednesday afternoon, the prices then fell more significantly. Although the precious metal was able to make up for some of the losses as trading progressed as part of a recovery movement, on Thursday afternoon it was almost 1,900 US dollars. After stabilizing, gold was able to gradually recover dynamically on Friday as trading progressed. The precious metal went to 1,924.6 U.S. dollar from the weekly trade.
The weekly high is just above last week’s level, the weekly low was also formatted above last week’s level and above the $1,900 mark. A small profit was also reported in the past trading week, the 13th this year. The range was slightly smaller than in the previous week; it was also below the annual average.
On the upside, we expected gold to start our next target at $1,934.7 with a break above $1,932.3. This movement has set in, the start-up target has been reached and just exceeded, the setup worked almost optimally. The pullbacks did not go below $1,903.7 to our next target on the downside at $1,900.9.
Gold – How could it go on:
gold resistors
- 1,928.8
- 1,938.4
- 1,949.6
- 1,961.6
- 1,974.2
- 1,983.7
- 2,004.5
Gold supports
- 1,919.6
- 1,918.4
- 1,916.7
- 1,916.1
- 1,907.5
- 1,902.4
- 1,880.1
- 1,867.1
The most important brands based on our gold setup:
- Intraday mark 1,964 and 1,871
- End of day marks 2,042 and 1,797
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) (1,916)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Closed) (2,041)
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- Boxing range 2,484 to 1,087
- Ranges 4,497 to 21,378
Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that gold has not broken above the SMA20 (currently at $1,928.8) for weeks. It kept going back to that line and down again from here. So far all attempts to take this line have failed. Towards the end of the week, the SMA20 was restarted, but the candlestick of the daily candle remained below this average line.
This has not changed the initial situation and the interpretation of the daily chart: as long as gold is trading below the SMA20 at the end of the day, there is a risk that further losses could occur, initially in the area of 1,880/75 US dollars and then overall could run into the SMA200 area (currently at $1,867.1).
However, if the move is successful via the SMA20 and the precious metal can settle above this line, the SMA50 (currently at USD 1,961.6) must subsequently be overcome. Only when gold has managed to establish itself above the SMA50 at the end of the day will the path towards the $2,020/$30 mark be free again.
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): neutral
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The precious metal established itself below SMA50 (currently at $1,916.1) a few trading days ago. Although there have been some recovery movements in the course of trading, gold has repeatedly been rejected at the SMA20 (currently at 1,919.6 US dollars). Towards the end of the week, there was a dynamic upward movement. In the course of this, gold was able to move above the SMA20 and subsequently also settle above this average line.
With the move, the 4h chart has brightened. Gold has set an exclamation point by breaking the SMA20. The important thing now is that it moves quickly towards the SMA200 (currently at $1,941.7). It is conceivable that this line could now be started. However, it remains to be seen whether gold will manage to push itself over this line and establish itself.
Setbacks could initially set in as far as the SMA20. If this support does not hold in the course of pullbacks, the SMA50 could offer further support. However, if this line does not hold and gold moves below this line, the chart picture would cloud over again, especially if the precious metal establishes itself below the SMA50. If gold regains support below the SMA50, there is a risk that the downside could continue towards $1,880/$75 and closer to $1,866/64.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): neutral
Conclusion: as long as gold trades below the 20-day line at the end of the day, further losses could occur. Only if the precious metal manages to establish itself above the 50-day moving average again at the end of the day would further recoveries be conceivable and possible
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup: 55%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 45%
Gold – assessment for the new trading week:
Long setup: Gold may initially attempt to hold above $1,924.0. If this succeeds, it could be further up to our next targets 1,926.5, at 1,928.8, at 1,929.5, at $1,930.8 and then at $1,932.4. Above $1932.4, our next targets would be 1934.8, 1936.7, 1938.4, 1941.1, 1942.3, 1945.1, 1947.3 and then $1,949.6 to find. If there is no recovery at $1,949.6, the upside could continue. Gold could be our next targets at 1950.9, at 1952.2, at 1954.3, at 1956.4, at 1957.9, at 1959.2, at 1960.8, at 1962.1, at 1964.4, at $1,966.6 and then $1,968.7.
Short setup: If gold fails to hold above $1924.0, the precious metal could first target our next targets at 1922.1, 1919.6, 1918.4, 1916.7 and then 1916.1 US dollars run. Can get gold in the field of 1,916.7/1,916.1 If the US dollar does not recover, or if the level is started with dynamics and momentum, it could go straight down to our next starting targets at 1914.5, 1913.4, 1911.0, 1910.1, 1909 .8, at $1,908.7 and $1,907.6 respectively. Below $1,907.6, the precious metal could challenge our targets at 1,905.4, at 1,903.7, at 1,900.9, at 1,899.0, at 1,897.7, at 1,896.4, at 1,895.1 1,893.2 and then start at $1,891.0. If there is no recovery at $1,891.0, the downside could continue. Our next targets would be the 1889.8, the 1887.2, the 1885.5, the 1883.9, the 1881.4, the 1879.7, the 1877.1, the 1875.2, the 1873.8 and then the $1,871.1.
Overall expected gold trend in week 28 / 2023:
Sources: xStation5 by XTB
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