ABSTRACT: Little has changed in our assessment of how to interpret gold’s daily chart. The precious metal must first try to establish itself above the SMA20 by the end of the day. Another requirement would be that the precious metal then has to move upwards quickly. Only when these two conditions are met would listings in the range of 2,050/75 US dollars and higher up to 2,100 US dollars be conceivable and conceivable. You can “miss” a buying pressure – gold seems to want to go up, but “without pressure” or boost.
Current gold analysis on May 14, 2023: Chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
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Gold Review: (05/08/2023 – 05/12/2023)
Commodity gold was trading at $2,020.8 as of Monday morning. The precious metal was up $41.00 from Monday morning last week and $3.10 from Friday night’s weekly close. Gold was able to recover somewhat by Monday evening, but fell again during early trading on Tuesday. It gradually went up until Wednesday afternoon. The weekly high was formatted on Wednesday afternoon as part of the spike movement. The winnings were returned by the evening. The prices continued to fall until Thursday morning. After the interim recovery on Thursday afternoon, the prices continued to crumble. Although there was a smaller recovery on Friday, these gains were also given up again. The precious metal was able to recover a bit on Friday evening and went up 2,010.8 U.S. dollar from the weekly trade.
The weekly high is just below the level of the previous week. The weekly low was formatted above both the previous week’s level and the $2,000 mark. After two weeks of gains, a small weekly loss was shown again this trading week. The range was well below the level of the previous week and below the annual average.
On the upside, on the upside of $2045.7, we expected gold to start our next target at $2047.7. This movement has set in, the start-up target has been reached and exceeded, the setup didn’t fit. The pullbacks did not go below $2,002.1 to our next target on the downside at $2,000.3.
Gold – How could it go on:
gold resistors
- 2,019.7
- 2,023.0
- 2,024.2
- 2,025.8
- 2,059.5
- 2,080.1
- 2,097.1
- 2,105.8
Gold supports
- 2,010.8
- 2,007.4
- 2,001.5
- 1,975.3
- 1,972.1
- 1,932.1
The most important brands based on our gold setup:
- Intraday mark 2,041 and 1,958
- End of day marks 2,078 and 1,797
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) (1,916)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Closed) (2,041)
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- Boxing range 2,484 to 1,087
- Ranges 4,497 to 21,378
Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that gold has continued to move in the orbit of the SMA20 (currently at $2,004.6) in the last few weeks of trading. While some buying pressure has set in, the SMA20 has retained its appeal.
This means that little has changed in our assessment of the interpretation of the daily chart. The precious metal must first try to establish itself above the SMA20 by the end of the day. Another requirement would be that the precious metal then has to move upwards quickly. Only when these two conditions are met would listings in the range of 2,050/75 US dollars and higher up to 2,100 US dollars be conceivable and conceivable.
However, if gold establishes itself below the SMA20, the daily chart would cloud over again. It is conceivable that further weakness could occur, which could go into the SMA50 area (currently at $1,957.1).
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): neutral / bullish
Consideration in the 4h chart:
After gold pushed above the SMA20 (currently at $2,026.7), it didn’t go much further. It then went back up and below the SMA20 as trading progressed. The chart clearly shows that the SMA50 (currently at $2,025.0) initially offered support but then gave it up. In the further course of trading at the end of the week it went exactly to the SMA200 (currently at 2,001.1 US dollars), which held as support.
What will matter is whether gold manages to hold above the SMA200 at the hourly close. If this succeeds, it could go back to the SMA20 or the SMA50. Both average lines are currently close together. If gold manages to establish itself above the SMA50 and, above all, to move upwards quickly, it could return to the $2,050/$75 area.
If the SMA200 is abandoned as support and the precious metal establishes itself below this line by the hourly close, further levies could occur that could go well below $2,000.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): neutral
Conclusion: Gold needs to close above the 20-day moving average if it wants any prospects of $2,050/$75. However, if the precious metal establishes itself below the 20-day line, there could be larger losses, which in case of doubt can also have a dynamic character and could run up to the area of the 50-day line
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup: 55%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 45%
Gold framework conditions:
The central banks continued to tighten interest rates at their most recent meetings. The interest rate hikes are not only affecting companies and private households, the effects of which have already had a significant impact. Demand in private residential construction, for example, has plummeted, with the increased cost of raw materials making the dream of a single-family home increasingly unrealistic for many families.
However, national budgets are also affected by interest rate increases, although the effects here could be even greater than in the private sector. Many national economies continued to borrow in the zero-interest phase, and the calculation of the increasing level of indebtedness will be presented step by step. Debt in developed economies has continued to rise as a percentage of GDP in recent years. The USA, for example, has a debt level of over 130% of economic output. Economists are urgently calling for debt to be reduced, but this will be difficult as the scope for action is increasingly restricted by the rise in interest rates. If no energetic countermeasures are taken, the problem will one day become unmanageable.
Gold – assessment for the new trading week:
Long Setups: Gold may initially attempt to hold above $2,011.0. If successful, it could continue higher towards our next targets at 2012.7, at 2014.1, at 2016.8, at 2018.4, at 2019.7, at 2021.1, at 2023.0, at 2024 .2 and then go to $2,025.8. Above $2025.8, gold could challenge our approach targets at 2027.4, at 2029.6, at 2031.7, at 2033.4, at 2035.3, at 2038.1, at 2040.6 $2,043.3, $2,045.5, $2,047.8, and $2,049.6, respectively.
Short setup: If gold fails to hold above $2011.0, the precious metal could initially target our next targets at $2009.9, $2007.4, $2005.6, $2004.7, $2002.8 and $2002.8 respectively .running at $2,001.5. Below $2001.5, gold could be our next targets at 1999.4, at 1997.0, at 1995.3, at 1993.4, at 1991.1, at 1989.5, at 1987.4, at 1985 .9, at 1,983.4, at 1,981.0, at 1,979.1, at 1,976.4, at 1,975.3, at 1,972.1 and then at $1,969.8.
Overarching expected trend in week 20 / 2023:
ACTION at the TESTSIEGER 2023:
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