10:37 June 11, 2023
ABSTRACT: The 4h chart shows that gold has moved above the SMA50. After a pullback below the SMA20, the move succeeded again above the SMA50 at the end of the week. It can also be seen that there is a lack of upward pressure. The precious metal cannot break away from the two moving average lines to the north. As long as gold is trading below the 20-day line at the end of the day, further losses could occur.
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Current gold analysis on June 11, 2023: Chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
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Latest Gold Trading News 🔴 Gold Trade Ideas 🔴 Gold Forecast & Outlook
Gold framework conditions:
The FED and the ECB meet this week. The signals are currently contradictory. On the one hand, inflationary pressures have eased in recent weeks and months, which could prompt central banks to pause interest rates. On the other hand, the price increase in Germany and in Europe is well above the announced 2%. It is therefore conceivable that both the FED and the ECB could raise interest rates again by 0.25%. What will be important, however, is how the central banks define medium-term monetary policy. That will likely affect markets more than another rate move.
It is undisputed that the increased interest rates, especially in Germany and in Europe, are now causing problems in many sectors. The real estate industry in particular has been hit twice, first by the rise in interest rates, which makes financing more expensive, and then by the continued high costs of materials and labour.
The ECB recently issued a warning regarding the real estate sector. The high level of investment in commercial real estate has led to excessive valuations of commercial real estate in recent years. The trend towards working from home as well as an overall decrease in demand and rising financing costs are also putting pressure on the commercial real estate market.
Gold Review: (05/05/2023 – 06/09/2023)
gold was trading at $1944.8 on Monday morning. The precious metal was $2.00 below Monday morning last week’s level but $0.30 above Friday night’s weekly close. Gold initially continued to fall until midday on Monday, but was then able to recover dynamically and with momentum. In the course of this, it went up to 1,960 US dollars, above which the precious metal was also able to establish itself. Another breakout attempt failed on Wednesday afternoon and the pullback resumed and below $1,940. After consolidating, gold rallied on Thursday and rallied above $1,960 again and this time also latched above that level. The precious metal went to 1,960.1 U.S. dollar from the weekly trade.
The weekly high is $10 below last week’s level, while the weekly low was formatted above last week’s level. A weekly profit was also reported in the past trading week. The range, on the other hand, was significantly smaller than in the previous week and was also below the annual average.
On the upside, we expected gold to start our next target at $1,974.3 with a break above $1,972.3. This movement has set in, the target was not reached, the setup didn’t work. The pullbacks went below our next target on the downside at $1,938.7, falling below $1,939.8.
Gold – How could it go on:
gold resistors
- 1,960.7
- 1,963.0
- 1,964.6
- 1,974.2
- 1,984.9
- 1,989.9
- 1,991.1
- 2,004.5
Gold supports
- 1,959.8
- 1,959.0
- 1,956.5
- 1,919.7
- 1,880.1
- 1,842.1
The most important brands based on our gold setup:
- Intraday mark 1,997 and 1,915
- End of day marks 2,042 and 1,871
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) (1,916)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Closed) (2,041)
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- Boxing range 2,484 to 1,087
- Ranges 4,497 to 21,378
Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that gold has gradually given way after it had formatted the high for the year. It tumbled below both the SMA20 (currently at $1,964.6) and the SMA50 (currently at $1,989.9) that the precious metal has established itself as it sold off. At the end of the last trading week it went to the SMA20, which can be interpreted as a kind of sign of life.
It will now be important whether gold can establish a daily close above the SMA20 and confirm this daily close the following day. If this occurs, it could go further up to the SMA50. The daily chart would brighten up bullishly if the precious metal manages to establish itself above the SMA50.
However, if the move fails on an end-of-day basis, there is still a possibility that further sell-off could materialize, which could ultimately run into the SMA200 area (currently at $1,842.1).
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): neutral
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The 4h chart shows that gold has moved above the SMA50 (currently at $1,960.7). After a pullback below the SMA20 (currently at $1,959.0), the move succeeded again above the SMA50 at the end of the week. It can also be seen that there is a lack of upward pressure. The precious metal cannot break away from the two moving average lines to the north.
What will be important, however, is whether gold can quickly move upwards from the SMA50. Should this succeed, further recovery movements could set in, which could go into the area of the SMA200 (currently at $1,984.9). It remains to be seen whether the move will materialize.
If gold regains support below the SMA20, it could revisit down towards $1,920/$15 and $1,890/$85.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): bearish / neutral
Conclusion: As long as gold is trading below the 20-day line at the end of the day, further losses could occur. Only if the precious metal manages to establish itself above the 50-day moving average again at the end of the day would further recoveries be conceivable and possible
- Probability of bull scenario based on our setup: 40%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 60%
Gold: Assessment for the new trading week:
Long Setups: Gold may initially attempt to hold above $1,960.0. If successful, it could continue higher towards our next targets at 1960.7, at 1963.0, at 1964.6, at 1966.8, at 1968.1, at 1970.2, at 1972.4, at 1974 .2, at $1,976.8, at $1,979.2, and at $1,981.8, respectively. Above the $1,981.8 mark would be the 1,983.2, the 1,985.1, the 1,987.3, the 1,989.9, the 1,991.1, the 1,993.5, the 1,995.2, and then the 1,997, $1 our next port of call.
Short setup: If gold fails to hold above $1,960.0, the precious metal could initially target our next targets at 1,959.8, at 1,959.0, at 1,958.2, at 1,956.5, 1,955.0 at 1,953 .7, at $1,952.2, at $1,950.5 and then at $1,948.9. Below the $1,948.9 mark would be our 1,946.4, at 1,944.5, at 1,942.7, at 1,941.7, at 1,939.8, at, 1,938.7, at 1,936.4, at 1,934.1 , found at $1,932.5 and $1,9307, respectively.
Overarching expected trend in week 24 / 2023:
The “big” trading session is over from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m German time. Many other brokers offer low spread only from 09:00 to 17:30 – XTB offers the consistently low spread during BIG trading hours. Experience the XTB Advantage.
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