ABSTRACT: With the move down on Friday, the chart picture has continued to cloud over bearish. As long as gold is listed below the 20-day line at the end of the day, further losses are possible and conceivable, which could go up to the area of the 200-day line.
Current gold analysis on February 5th, 2023: chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
Latest Gold Trading News ? Gold Trade Ideas ? Gold Forecast & Outlook
Gold Review: (01/30/2023 – 02/03/2023)
Gold was trading at $1,930.8 as of Monday morning. The precious metal was up $10.60 from Monday morning last week and $4.30 from Friday night’s weekly close. On Monday it initially continued sideways in a narrow box. During early trading on Tuesday, prices fell somewhat, but around noon the precious metal was able to settle in the $1,900 range and run back above $1,920. The race continued sideways in a comparatively narrow box until Wednesday afternoon. There was a very dynamic upward movement in the evening, which ran up to and above 1,950 US dollars. Gold held at this level until Thursday afternoon, but then dynamically declined towards $1,900. After a longer period of consolidation, the next downward thrust took place on Friday afternoon, which was only able to stabilize in the area of 1,861 US dollars. The precious metal went to 1,864.7 U.S. dollar from the weekly trade.
The weekly high is above the level of the previous week, the weekly low is well below the level of the previous period. In the last two trading days of this trading week, the gains since the beginning of the year were practically equalized. The range was almost $100 and the weekly loss was a whopping $61.8.
On the upside, we were expecting gold to start our next target on the upside at $1,960.1 with a break above $1,958.0. This movement has set in, the start-up goal was not quite achieved, the setup didn’t fit well with it. The pullbacks didn’t quite go to our next target of $1,860.5 by falling below $1,863.3.
Gold – How could it go on:
gold resistors
- 1,875.2
- 1,897.3
- 1,913.4
- 1,915.3
- 1,920.3
- 1,922.1
- 1,927.6
- 1,977.1
Gold supports
Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that gold pushed above the SMA20 (currently at 1,913.4 US dollars) in mid-December and was subsequently able to establish it. It gradually went up from here. The precious metal was initially able to move away significantly from the SMA20 on a daily basis, this trading week started again and fell below this average line. The losses of the two trading days are clearly visible in the daily chart. It went below the SMA20 on the dynamic down move.
With the move, the interpretation of the daily chart has changed significantly compared to the previous week. As long as gold is trading below the SMA20 at the end of the day, further losses are conceivable and possible, which could initially go as far as the SMA50 area (currently at $1,843.6). If the precious metal does not manage to stabilize and recover in the haze of this average line, there is a risk and possibility that further levies could occur that have the potential to reach the SMA200 area (currently at $1,775.1 to run.
Should there be any recovery, this would initially have the potential to run into the area of the SMA20. Only with a daily close above this line with a confirmation on the following day would the daily chart brighten up again. However, it remains to be seen whether this movement will materialize in the coming trading days.
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): neutral
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The precious metal has repeatedly fallen below the SMA20 (currently at 1,920.3 US dollars) in the last few trading days, and was able to recover again and again in the haze of the SMA50 (currently at 1,925.8 US dollars). It didn’t go much better at first. Only on Thursday did it head north into the $1,960 area, and significantly down from there in the aftermath. After the first down move on Thursday afternoon, the next more pronounced move down came on Friday and went below the SMA200 (currently at $1,875.2).
With the move on Friday, the chart picture has become more bearish. What is important now is whether the precious metal manages to push itself back above the SMA200 and subsequently establish it. If this succeeds, it could go further up to the SMA20 and the SMA50.
However, if the precious metal establishes itself below the SMA200, further levies are conceivable and possible which have the prospect of running into the area of 1,775/73 US dollars.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): neutral / bearish
Conclusion: the daily chart switched back to neutral due to the downward move on Thursday and Friday of the last trading week. As long as gold is listed below the 20-day line at the end of the day, further losses are possible and conceivable, which could go up to the area of the 200-day line.
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup: 55%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 45%
Gold framework conditions:
As expected, the FED raised interest rates again on Wednesday, but only by 0.25% and thus further reduced the pace of increases. However, the FED’s outlook triggered euphoria among investors. The US Federal Reserve has conceded that while there could be another rate hike, tightening of the monetary policy could be completed soon. This has led to strong buying interest, particularly on the NASDAQ technology exchange. On Thursday of this trading week, the index was again above the 12,800 point mark for the first time.
The ECB also made the next rate hike at its last meeting on Thursday. At the same time, the central bank held out the prospect of the next rate hike at the next meeting in March. This was also expected in this form, the interest rate is now 3%, which will make real estate financing in particular more expensive. Although savers get better interest rates for their deposits, the whole thing is put into perspective when the inflation of 8.5% is put in relation to it.
US jobs data for December, released on Friday, came in robust again. The US unemployment rate is now 3.4%, below pre-corona levels. At the same time, however, hourly wages have risen significantly, which could have an inflationary effect. The FED has repeatedly pointed out that the increase in wage costs could well result in further inflationary pressure in recent months.
Gold assessment for the coming trading week:
Long Setups: Gold may initially attempt to hold above $1,865. If successful, it could continue higher towards our next targets at 1868.8, at 1872.4, at 1875.2, at 1877.8, at 1879.1, at 1881.0, at 1883.2, at 1885 .7, at $1,888.6 and then at $1,890.0. If there are no setbacks around the $1,890 mark, the upward movement could continue. Our next targets would be at 1892.1, at 1893.4, at 1895.9, at 1897.5, at 1899.7, at 1900.5, at 1902.1, at 1904.8 and then at 1906.7 US find dollars. Above $1,906.7, the precious metal could have our next targets at 1,907.7, at 1,909.0, at 1,910.5, at 1,913.4, at 1,915.3, at 1,916.9, at 1,919.0 , starting at $1,920.3 and then $1,922.1.
Short setup: If gold fails to hold above $1865, the precious metal could approach our next targets at 1863.4, at 1861.2, at 1859.1, at 1857.6, at 1855.4, at 1853.2 , running at $1,851.0 and then at $1,849.7. Below $1,849.7, our next targets would be at 1,847.7, at 1,845.6, at 1,843.6, at 1,841.8, at 1,840.0, at 1,838.8, at 1,836.4, at $1,833.9, $1,831.2, $1,829.5, and then $1,827.2.
- Overarching expected trend in week 06 / 2023: sideways / upwards
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